Magic Statistics

Over one hundred job positions are vacant in just one department of the Government of Nunavut.  That means there must be several hundred openings throughout the organisation.

Thirty per cent of the jobs in Nunavut's Community and Government Services Department are vacant, and government officials say they have had a difficult time finding all the people they need.

Senior staff told the legislative assembly Tuesday that 105 of the department's 345 positions are vacant.

The jobs page at the government website lists scores of openings in many areas: health care, management and administration, construction, policy wonkery, etc., etc.  There’s something for everyone.  The Nunavut government pays very well indeed and offers generous benefits and other incentives.  As well, Northern bonuses and significant tax breaks are available to Nunavut residents.

I can only see one drawback to a job with the Nunavut government: You’d have to move to Nunavut.

Previous related posts:

• Do not misspell Iqaluit
• Nunavut facing crisis in Inuit education and employment

Last month, Manitoba declared polar bears “threatened” under its Endangered Species Act, and Conservation Minister Stan Struthers stated that climate change is having an adverse impact on the animals.  Now Arviat, Nunavut, MLA David Alagarak suggests that polar bears are threatened not by temperature but by tourists.

Alagalak said hunters there believe tourism practices around Churchill, Man., may be leading to fewer, thinner, less healthy polar bears in his region. That's in contrast to how they looked before: "a nice look, like nice and fat and healthy and strong," he said Friday.

Scientists have said that the bears have seen a drop in weight, health and population due to shrinking sea ice that is going out earlier and coming in later, leaving starving bears on the shore.

But residents in and around Arviat believe polar bears are also following tourism activities in Churchill, especially the smells coming from tourists and operators, Alagalak said.

We get lots of tourists in Yukon and I’ve never noticed that they give off any particular smell, but no doubt polar bears have very sensitive olfactories.

As a result, he added, the bears are lingering in Churchill instead of migrating north, where the ice comes in earlier and they put on weight by hunting for more nutritious food.

"They're trying to wait out for the people to leave to try and find what they're smelling … maybe it's causing the bears to lose fat," Alagalak said.

Eco-tourism may not be so environmentally friendly after all.

Previous related posts:

• Loss of sea ice unlikely to endanger polar bears
• Ask a polar bear
• Environmentalist power trip inflicts collateral damage on Inuit people

A month ago in Kimmirut, Nunavut, RCMP Const. Douglas Scott was shot and killed while responding to a report of an impaired driver.  He answered the late-night call by himself.

It has now emerged that an e-mail sent last June instructed detachment commanders in Nunavut to provide an explanation every time RCMP officers answer calls in pairs.

In a June e-mail to detachment commanders in Nunavut, an e-mail that was obtained by CBC News, a senior regional officer wrote that while reviewing overtime claims he noticed some units sent two members to all calls.

"The direction that I am giving you, the detachment commander, is to ensure that you and the member(s) under your command base your response to calls on appropriate risk assessment," he wrote in the e-mail.

"Note on all OT claims how many members responded to every call. When more then [sic] one member responds to a call provide an explanation."

In October, Const. Christopher Worden was shot dead in Hay River, NWT, while responding to a call alone.

RCMP Sgt Dan Laurence, who spent four years in Nunavut, thinks officers should always have backup.

"Someone died because we're trying to save a dollar perhaps," said RCMP Sgt. Dan Laurence, who worked in Nunavut for four years, including one year at the RCMP's two-person detachment in Kimmirut.
. . .
"We should have no members going to a call alone. Never. In any situation, regardless of years of service and all that because you know what? A bullet doesn't recognize if you've got 25 years service or five months service."

RCMP top brass have some 'splainin' to do.

Based on empirical research, the Nunavut government's manager of wildlife research rejects the US Geological Survey report claiming that two-thirds of the world's polar bears will die off within fifty years.  The report is based on the supposition that declining sea ice triggered by global warming will cause polar bears to starve and die, which Dr Mitch Taylor dismisses as "naïve and presumptuous".

The USGS presumption is flatly contradicted by an ongoing three-year study in Davis Strait, an area near the southern limit of the polar bear's customary range.  In fact, polar bears are healthy and their numbers are increasing.

According to the USGS, Davis Strait ought to be among the first places where polar bears will starve due to shrinking seasonal sea ice, which scientists say will deprive the bears of a vital platform to hunt seals.

Yet "Davis Strait is crawling with polar bears," Taylor said. "It's not safe to camp there. They're fat. The mothers have cubs. The cubs are in good shape."

Dr Taylor also says he and many Inuit hunters have seen bears catch seals without ice.

The Government of Nunavut is conducting a study of the Davis Strait bear population. Results of the study won't be released until 2008, but Taylor says it appears there are some 3,000 bears in an area – a big jump from the current estimate of about 850 bears.

"That's not theory. That's not based on a model. That's observation of reality," he says.

Diminished sea ice notwithstanding, polar bears are so numerous in some areas that increased hunting quotas are being considered.  Several of the bears observed in the study are among the largest on record.

Taylor does not disagree that climate change is occurring; nevertheless, he maintains that projections of declining polar bear numbers are unwarranted.

Canada is home to two-thirds of the world's polar bears, and 12 of Canada's 13 polar bear populations live in Nunavut.

Previous related posts:

• Discovered: Cause of melting Arctic ice
• Polar bears threatened by computer models
• Environmentalist power trip inflicts collateral damage on Inuit people
• Polar bears are “vulnerable”. No, wait, I take that back.

The Times of London risks its reputation as a sober, responsible, and reasonably reliable news source with this hysterical misguided report on Canada’s efforts to retain control over its own territory.

Arctic military bases signal new Cold War

Canada fired a warning shot in a new Cold War over the vast resources of the far North by announcing last night that it will build two new military bases in the Arctic wilderness.

A week after Russia laid claim to the North Pole in what is rapidly becoming a global scramble for the region’s vast oil and gas reserves, Stephen Harper, the Canadian Prime Minister, said that Canada would open a new army training centre for cold-weather fighting at Resolute Bay, and a deep-water port at Nanisivik, on the northern tip of Baffin Island. The country is also beefing up its military presence in the far North with 900 Rangers.

“Canada’s Government understands that the first principle of Arctic sovereignty is use it or lose it,” Mr Harper said.

Mr Harper has it exactly right: If Canada does not beef up its military presence in the far northern territories, we risk loss of sovereignty over those lands.  If we do not maintain manned armed forces bases around the Arctic, we will not be able to control who enters our northern waters.  In an age of international terrorism, that would be insane.

In any case, Canada is asserting its Arctic sovereignty against the United States at least as much as against Russia.  The US does not recognise Canadian sovereignty over the Northwest Passage, so, to support its claim, Canada needs active military presence at the passage’s eastern entrance, adjacent to the proposed Nanisivik base.  (See map at bottom of this post.)  But that doesn’t suit The Times’s “Cold War” scenario too well.

What’s more, the whole world knows that Canada’s military has been allowed to deteriorate badly for decades.  Canada finally and belatedly begins an effort to re-build armed forces presence within our own boundaries, and The Times calls it the start of a new Cold War.  Rave on.

Previous related posts:

• US to challenge Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic?
• Navy to visit NW passage for first time in decades
• Defence Minister prefers not to wait for a threat

Iqaluit, the capital of Nunavut, used to be called Frobisher Bay, but its name was officially changed on 1 January 1987.  Notice that the name, an English transcription from the Inuit language Inuktitut, violates a cardinal rule of English usage because it contains the letter “q” not followed by a “u”.

Today, in conversation with a Nunavut resident, I found out how important it is to spell Iqaluit correctly.

“Iqaluit” is Inuktitut for “many fish”.  “Iqualuit” is Inuktitut for “dirty bum”.

Previous related post: Iqaluit drivers to be burdened with rules of the road

The Washington Pest has taken a close look at the reasons why polar bears are said to be endangered, and pinpoints the problem.

The US Fish & Wildlife Service has proposed classifying the polar bear as a threatened species. What makes this unusual is that the bear is not threatened by humans. The polar bear is threatened by computer models.

This action could set a really fat precedent because computer models are much more dangerous than humans. It is estimated that at least one half of all living species are threatened by computer models. Mitigating all these threats could keep the FWS busy, not to mention rich and powerful, for years to come.

The problem is that some computer models say the Arctic ice cap will disappear in about 40 years, give or take a century. Polar bears live and work on the ice so this might be a problem for them, we don't really know.

Just to be sure the FWS wants to invoke the Endangered Species Act, to give them dictatorial, sorry, administrative powers now to help the may someday be out of work bears.

If we allow computer models, rather than real events, to set public policy, we are all in big trouble because that would give statisticians carte blanche to rule the world.

I am only half joking about that.  At a Statistics Canada meeting a few years ago, I heard a presentation from a Canadian statistician working for OECD arguing that the assembled experts should give full support to the Kyoto Protocol because enforcement of its terms depends on statistics gathered by national and international statistical agencies.  In order to know whether CO2 emissions, etc., are being reduced per Kyoto targets, data must be gathered and analysed from emissions sources.  Kyoto therefore depends crucially on the work of statisticians.

This fellow presented Kyoto not just as a make-work project for statisticians, but as means of wielding power.  I kid you not.  Fortunately, based on the discussion after the presentation, no one in the audience was very enthusiastic about his perspective.  Some, myself included, were rather taken aback.

h/t: Greenie Watch and Ken Maize’s POWERblog

Previous related posts:

• Environmentalist power trip inflicts collateral damage on Inuit people
• Polar bears are “vulnerable”. No, wait, I take that back.

Late last month, the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) proposed to name the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act.  Nunavut Environment Minister Patterk Netser has now gone on record against the proposal.

Faced with another examination of its wildlife practices, the government of Nunavut is preparing to defend its polar bear policies where it believes they need to be defended — the court of southern public opinion.

"That's where the problem is," Patterk Netser, Nunavut's Environment Minister, said yesterday from Coral Harbour. "The problem is down there. Not here."

Nunavut is being caught between environmentalists using the powerful predators as a lever to move the U.S. government on the issue of climate change and politicians seeking an opportunity to look good, Mr. Netser says.

See also this statement by Dr Mitch Taylor, Polar Bear Biologist with the Nunavut government, pointing out that there is no evidence that Canada’s polar bears are endangered.  (More from Dr Taylor here.)

An Iqaluit newspaper charges that the proposal to list the polar bear as endangered arises, not from scientific consideration of the bear and its habitat, but from a political fight to force the Bush administration to acknowledge global warming.

The announcement is a response to a petition launched in February of 2004 by an environmental organization called the Centre for Biological Diversity. In December of 2005, two other groups, the Natural Resources Defence Council and Greenpeace U.S.A., joined the effort and helped launch a lawsuit against the U.S government.

Those groups say shrinking sea ice threatens polar bear populations. Their goal is to force the Bush administration to acknowledge the reality of climate change and adopt policies aimed at reducing the greenhouse gases that cause global warming.

Those groups are now declaring victory, because they believe they’ve forced the Bush administration to stop denying the science that reveals the true extent of global warming.

“It’s an affirmation that global warming is real,” Brendan Cummmings, a lawyer for the Centre for Biological Diversity, told the Guardian newspaper last week.

Swell.  Environmentalists score political points against hated Washington Republicans, and the livelihood of Inuit hunters in northern Canada is mere collateral damage.

US Senator James Inhofe (R-OK) recalls that, only a few years ago, the US Geological Survey reported that Alaska polar bear populations “may now be near historic highs”.  Sen Inhofe argues that the proposal to list the polar bear as endangered shows that the Endangered Species Act is “broken”.

h/t for Inhofe statement: Greenie Watch

Previous related posts:

• Polar bears are “vulnerable”. No, wait, I take that back.
• Bizarre bear shot on Banks Island

UPDATE (5 Jan.): Follow-up: Polar bears threatened by computer models

The Diocese of the Arctic has appointed Rev. James C. Barlow as its cathedral dean, although the diocese presently has no cathedral building.  The previous St Jude's Cathedral, Iqaluit, was destroyed by arson in November 2005.  One of Rev Barlow's top priorities will be to assist efforts to raise funds for a cathedral building.

Rev Barlow's previous appointment was priest-in-charge at St Francis of Assisi Parish, Estes Park, Colorado, an Anglo-Catholic church belonging to the Anglican Church in America, and part of the Traditional Anglican Communion (TAC).  St Francis is thus not in communion with the Anglican Church of Canada.

Anglican Journal goes on a bit about St Francis Church and the TAC, before telling us about Rev Barlow's previous work in the Anglican Church of Canada and how he came to be chosen as dean.

According to St. Francis’ Web site, the American branch was formed in 1977 “to preserve traditional Anglo-Catholic doctrine and forms of worship in the face of rampant changes in liturgy, morality and order by liberals within the church.”

The Traditional Anglican Communion does not ordain women, opposes revisions to the Elizabethan Book of Common Prayer and opposes ordaining homosexuals or blessing gay couples. TAC claims about 400,000 members on six continents.
. . .
Mr. Barlow, who is 55, grew up in Wisconsin and has previously worked in Canada, serving as rector of St. Timothy’s parish in Rigolet, Labrador from 1995 to 1997.

He and his wife, Ligaya, who is Filipino, liked the North and he applied for a parish vacancy in Kugluktuk. Earlier this year, however, Arctic suffragan (assistant) bishop Larry Robertson called Mr. Barlow and asked if he would let his name stand for the dean’s position at St. Jude’s Cathedral in Iqaluit, a position made more complex by the fact that the igloo-shaped church burned down in November, 2005.

Rev Barlow says he is not opposed to women's ordination and, on the issue of ordaining non-celibate homosexuals, he defers to his bishop and synod.  The Diocese of the Arctic has made plain its opposition to homosexual practice.

Until a new cathedral is built, services are being held in the parish hall.

May our Lord richly bless Rev Barlow as he commences his ministry in the Arctic.

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The Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics, Statistics Canada, today released data on crime victimisation among residents of Canada's three northern territories.  In comparing these data with victimisation statistics in the ten provinces, an interesting paradox emerges.  Residents of the northern territories report a rate of violent crime victimisation almost three times that of those who live in the provinces.  Yet, those same northerners are more likely to say they personally feel safe from crime.

The rate of violent victimization in Canada's territories, based on information provided by Canadians themselves, was almost three times the rate for residents in the rest of the country, according to data from a survey that examined the extent and nature of criminal victimization.
. . .
Almost 4 in every 10 residents of the territories aged 15 and over reported that they were victimized at least once in the 12 months prior to being interviewed. This figure was well above the level of 28% for provincial residents who were victimized over the same time period.
. . .
Northern residents feel safer than those in the rest of Canada

Although northern residents experienced higher levels of violent victimization than did provincial residents, they were more likely to report feeling safe from crime.

In 2004, 54% of northern residents said they were "very satisfied" with their personal safety from crime, compared to 44% of residents in the rest of Canada.

So, are northerners complacent about violent crime or are southerners paranoid?

The full report contains further analysis of spousal violence, including the chart below.  (See page 11 of the pdf document.)

As the chart shows, when the three territories are viewed individually, notable variations appear in the reported prevalence of spousal violence.

(The superscript "E" next to an estimate indicates that the estimate is subject to a relatively wide sampling error and should therefore be used with caution.  At the same time, the sampling error is not so high that Statistics Canada deems the estimate unpublishable, so it's good enough for most general purposes.)

Generally speaking, levels of spousal violence are much higher in previous relationships than in current unions. While this finding holds true for residents of the North, the difference between current and previous partner rates of violence is smaller. In 2004, approximately 20% of northern residents reported having experienced spousal violence by an ex-partner while 9% of residents suffered violence by a current partner. By comparison, 19% of provincial residents reported violence by an ex-spouse and 3% reported violence by a current spouse. [reference omitted]

Note also that no separate analyses of legal marriages and common-law relationships are given.

Statistics Canada also reported some social and demographic characteristics of northerners that may help account for the higher rates of violent crime.

Northern residents tend to be younger on average than residents in the rest of Canada; they have higher proportions of lone-parent families and common-law families; they have higher rates of unemployment and they have higher proportions of Aboriginal residents, compared to the provinces.

On a personal note, I've lived in Whitehorse for 18 years, have never been a victim of violent crime, and have never felt unsafe.  Well, on one or two occasions, I've been worried about bears, but never about people.

Sources:

de Léséleuc, Sylvain, and Jodi-Anne Brzozowski, 2006. Victimization and Offending in Canada's Territories, 2004 and 2005. Statistics Canada catalogue no. 85F0033MIE2006011. http://www.statcan.ca/english/research/85F0033MIE/85F0033MIE2006011.pdf (accessed 30 October).

Statistics Canada, 2006.. "Victimization and offending in the North". The Daily, 30 October. Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-XIE.
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/061030/d061030b.htm (accessed 30 October 2006).

Previous related posts:

• Major gap in Statistics Canada’s violence against women study
• Violent crime more prevalent among aboriginals
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This summer the Canadian navy will transport at least 400 armed forces personnel to Lancaster Sound, the east entrance to the Northwest Passage.  The navy was last there some 30 years ago.  The operation is scheduled for 12-24 August and will involve a frigate, two smaller vessels, and six aircraft.

The ships will also sail up Baffin's east coast and set up a series of observation posts along Lancaster Sound to observe shipping, which has been increasing in recent years as retreating ice makes Arctic waters more navigable. The ships will also patrol Lancaster Sound and conduct fishing surveillance.
. . .
The patrol will end with stops in communities along Baffin Island's east coast to allow residents and members of the Forces to mix. The idea is for the two groups to get to know each other a bit as the military extends its reach in the Arctic, [navy Lieut. David] Connelly said.

Another objective of the mission is to visit and restore gravesites of two RCMP officers who died while serving at a remote, now-abandoned outpost in the late 1920s.

"We maintain historical gravesites and there are many throughout the North," said RCMP spokeswoman Jennifer Hayward. "Once a member, always a member."
. . .
This patrol will visit Dundas Harbour on the southeast coast of Devon Island, where the RCMP maintained a small detachment in 1924-33 and 1945-51 – an expression of Canadian Arctic sovereignty from an earlier time.
. . .
"We'll be bringing in a new white fence," said Connelly. "We'll be repairing and beautifying the graves and holding a modest ceremony."

Navy patrols have been travelling farther north in recent years.  This is expected to continue as the Conservative government has pledged a deep-water port and other military improvements with a view to reinforcing Canada’s sovereignty in the far North.

This map was obtained using Google Earth.  Devon Island, the largest uninhabited island on Earth, is located on the north side of Lancaster Sound.

Previous related posts:

• Competition begins for promised Arctic deep-sea port
• Defence Minister prefers not to wait for a threat
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Nunavut was created Canada’s third northern territory over seven years ago, but many of its Inuit residents have seen little improvement in their lives.  A recent investigation by former BC Supreme Court Justice Thomas Berger says Nunavut’s public education system is failing young Inuit people.  Over three-quarters of Nunavut students never graduate high school.

Ottawa has set up a working group to examine recommendations put forward by Thomas Berger on the need to improve Nunavut's education system.

Berger, who was appointed to help resolve outstanding land claim implementation issues in Nunavut, concluded better education would increase graduation rates and Inuit employment with the territorial government.
. . .
Berger recommends students be taught in both Inuktitut and English from kindergarten to Grade 12 to help keep them in school.

Under Article 23 of the land claims deal that gave birth to Nunavut, Inuit are supposed to hold 85 percent of jobs in the territorial government.  Because of poor education, however, Inuit occupy only 45 percent of public service jobs, a disproportionate number of which are at lower levels.

Berger says the crisis lies in the fact that the supply of qualified Inuit is exhausted, with only one-quarter of Inuit children graduating from high school.  He says the schools are failing, not producing Inuit graduates competent in Inuktitut or English.

Government has ended up "poaching" Inuktitut-speaking employees from one department to another, failing to meet its objectives overall.

Nunavut’s population is 85% Inuit, but the territory is effectively governed by white people, most of whom were brought in from southern Canada to manage the public service.  The government has also pursued a policy of de-centralisation, moving government offices and departments out of the territorial capital of Iqaluit to many, even more remote Nunavut communities.  This has tremendously increased the cost of governing and reduced operational efficiency.  (More on that in a moment.)

The condition of Nunavut on its seventh anniversary was reported in The New York Times a few days ago.

The initiative to grant Nunavut, a land of frozen fjords, desolate tundra and roaming herds of caribou, self-rule seven years ago was heralded worldwide as an enlightened attempt to right past wrongs against a suffering aboriginal people.

But two recent federal government reports tell a disheartening story of frustrated hopes and local failures that do not bode well for Nunavut's exceptionally young population (38 percent of its people are under 14), one still plagued by widespread drug abuse, alcoholism, suicide and family abuse.

The first report is Thomas Berger’s report on land claims and education.  The second is that of Canada’s Auditor General Sheila Fraser, who detailed $1 billion of public money lost through mismanagement, waste, and fraud.

She noted that the territorial government's efforts to decentralize operations to spread public jobs beyond the capital, Iqaluit, had spread accounting talent too thinly. She recommended "recentralizing" government accounting operations so senior staff members could more closely supervise less experienced public workers.

That recommendation could be applied to many other government functions as well.