Magic Statistics

Last week 56 British MPs praised police worker Philip Balmforth for publicising the hidden problem of forced marriages of school children, calling the vulnerable persons officer for the Bradford district a "hero" and a "knight in shining armour" who had done "amazing work".

"We wish to commend West Yorkshire Police and Bradford social services for having the foresight to engage Philip 12 years ago.

"It has enabled him to give so many women the right to choose who and when they should marry.

Now, however, his employers have suspended him from his job and commenced dismissal proceedings.

Philip Balmforth has been removed from his duties and faces a disciplinary hearing next week after giving an interview to The Times about Asian children who go missing from schools in Bradford.

The former police inspector, regarded as a national authority on "honour-based" violence, stands accused of "damaging the reputation" of West Yorkshire Police by speaking to a newspaper without consent.

It is understood that the force, which has investigated 176 cases of forced marriage in the past year alone, took action against Mr Balmforth after receiving a complaint from Bradford council. Senior figures on the local authority are said to have claimed that his high-profile work was damaging the city's image and was "bad for regeneration".

What mealy-mouthed nonsense.  It is, of course, those who force children and young women to marry against their will who are damaging Bradford's image.

The Times of London carries as a companion piece an in-depth report on a British-born girl of Pakistani descent who refused an arranged marriage to her first cousin.  She was forced to move and change her name to escape her family and gain her freedom.  Then, four months ago, she was coaxed back to the family home.

Four months ago, Ayesha went home. And so resumed her role as victim in an escalating cycle of threats and violence. The family is still insisting that she marry her cousin. She still refuses. A happy ending is not in sight.

Ayesha's life has been a long story of bullying, beatings and betrayal. It began on the day that she, aged 6, and her elder brother came home from their private school in the South of England to find a strange man in the house. He gave her an order that she refused to follow and he slapped her, hard, in the face. It was her first encounter with the man who was to become her stepfather.

And Bradford police authorities think that the man who wants to publicise the plight of Ayesha and others like her deserves to be fired.  It’s obvious who the real criminals are.  (Here’s a clue for Bradford police: Philip Balmforth is not among them.)

Once again, multiculturalism leads to compromise with barbarity and evil.

Previous related posts:

• Schools refuse to display forced marriage poster
• Thousands of British school children forced into marriage
• Fight the culture of forced marriages and honour killings

An astonishingly wrong-headed story about female employment, the economy, and fertility appears in today’s CanWest newspapers.  The reporter argues that encouraging women to enter the paid workforce is a “magic bullet” that will not only improve the financial situation of the women and their families but also generate an array of social benefits, including a much-needed increase in fertility.

There may be a magic bullet for solving some of our society's most difficult problems, such as a lack of affordable housing, immigration, productivity declines, an aging workforce or the near-crippling demands on the pension system.

Make it easier for women to get into the paid workforce.

Here's the magic. Not only would that increase family incomes, making homes more attainable, it's been shown to boost gross domestic product and decrease dependency on imported labour.

And, perhaps surprisingly, it almost certainly would increase the number of Canadian-born babies.

Many economic studies dating back at least to the 1970s have found a positive correlation between female labour force participation rates and the price of housing.  That is to say, getting women into the labour force does not “mak[e] homes more attainable”.

A moment’s reflection on the law of supply and demand should have made that clear.  Because the supply of suitable and desirable land for housing is relatively fixed, increasing income will drive up the price of such land and, therewith, housing.  (In technical terms, the supply of land for housing is inelastic.)  Even a cursory look at housing prices over the past fifty years will bear that out.

The claim that increasing female employment will cause an increase in fertility is said to be based on a 2004 study by the investment banking firm Goldman Sachs that focused on the European Union, the United States, and Japan.

Higher female employment results in a lower birth rate, right? Nonsense, says Goldman Sachs.

"This claim is simply contradicted by the facts. Fertility is positively correlated with high female employment."

More simply, countries with the best child-care policies not only have a higher proportion of women in the workforce, they also have higher fertility rates. Conversely, Italy and Japan, with the lowest levels of female employment, have the fewest babies.

Based on that information, the Goldman Sachs study appears to be based solely on cross-sectional analysis: Data from several countries at a single point in time were analysed.  A historical time-series analysis would have generated far different results.  Look at this chart showing fertility rates in Canada and the US for the period 1940-1999.

Female labor force participation rates rose more or less steadily during that time period, but look at what happened to fertility.  It went down—big-time.  In the 1990s, fertility in the US recovered to replacement level, but not in Canada, despite ongoing increases in female labour force participation and employment rates.

The claim that getting women into the paid labour force will result in increased fertility is based on a myopic and misleading analysis.

So, if the women are all out working, who will look after all those phantom babies?  Need you ask?

The report notes the inadequate supply of good-quality, affordable child care as the chief impediment to women taking full-time paid employment, followed by inadequate parental leave provisions.

Governments providing child-care subsidies conditional on employment, the report says, have been shown to consistently and significantly boost the number of women who work.

Daycare has been studied to death in recent years, and the verdict is in.  Daycare is bad for children and bad for parents.  If at all possible, parents should not pay strangers to care for their children, and the state should certainly not subsidise such arrangements.

h/t: ProWoman, ProLife

Previous related posts:

• Liberals and NDP want more daycare spaces . . . No, wait a minute
• Even high-quality daycare is associated with poor behaviour
• Canada’s fertility deficit
• Putting babies in daycare can lead to behaviour problems
• Mothers: Stash those kids in daycare and get back to work

Voting in today’s election in Zimbabwe has ended.  As an election-night TV reporter once said, “The people have spoken; we just don’t know what they've said”.  In this instance, since Robert Mugabe runs the country, we may never know.

Voting has closed in the most crucial election in Zimbabwe since independence in 1980, with many Zimbabweans desperate to end the misery of economic collapse under veteran President Robert Mugabe.
. . .
[T]he opposition says Mr Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party planned to steal victory through multiple balloting by its supporters.

Some sources report that voting was surprisingly light at polling stations in rural areas, where opposition to Mugabe is generally stronger.

For the first time, people are voting for a new president, parliament, senate and local government councils simultaneously. Two opposition candidates - Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change and Simba Makoni, an independent - are challenging Mr. Mugabe, who has ruled the country since 1980.
. . .
The independent Zimbabwe Election Support Network says that voter turnout has been good so far.

However, some commentators said they were surprised to see that so few voters lined up in rural areas where 60 percent of the population lives.

Zimbabwe-born Norman Geras, now Professor Emeritus in Politics at the University of Manchester, lists ten reasons for doubting that the election will be fair.

If none of the three candidates receives a majority, a run-off will be held between the two with the most votes.

The Zimbabwe Independent reported yesterday that Mugabe has already fixed the election.

A SECRET taskforce of security and electoral personnel has been put in place to ensure embattled President Robert Mugabe and his ruling Zanu PF win an absolute majority in tomorrow's high-stakes elections.

The team, headed by Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) operatives tasked to ensure Mugabe "wins power, stays in power, and keeps power", will heavily influence the already flawed electoral process to secure a predetermined result, well-substantiated information obtained this week shows.

Speaking from the far side of the world, I think Mugabe will arrange to be proclaimed the winner.  He has too much to lose if he leaves office, his pride and lust for power will not allow him to concede to either of his opponents, and he has a long track record of despotism and thuggery.  The real question, in my view, is how the people of Zimbabwe will react to another Mugabe “victory”.  Will they accept continued oppression and misery or will they take to the streets in numbers large enough to destabilise the government?

Thanks to Binks for the Pajamas Media link.

Previous related posts:

• Mugabe’s going to win, so election observers are not needed
• Planeloads of Zimbabwean currency, hot off the press
• Mugabe was a thug from Day One

So, we’re supposed to stop using electricity tonight for one hour to save the planet.  I don’t think so.  I have no special plans to alter my electricity usage during the appointed hour (whichever it is), but Kate Macmillan and Dr Mabuse intend to maximise their energy consumption.  More power to them!

In honour of the occasion, here’s an appropriate music clip for the SDA Earth Hour Offset Project. It’s nowhere near as raucous as the Spinal Tap video posted by Blazing Cat Fur, but it’s the thought that counts, right?

That’s the closing 45 seconds of “Every Light In The House”, the 1996 break-through hit by Trace Adkins.  Like many country love songs, it is totally sappy, IMHO.  I’m not a fan of most country music but, since this evening is Earth Hour, I'll post the official video.

If that doesn’t make you want to leave all your lights on, you must have a heart of stone.

Previous related post: CBC jumps on Earth Hour bandwagon