Magic Statistics

“I accept no responsibility for statistics, which are a form of magic beyond my comprehension.” — Robertson Davies

October 7th, 2007 at 10:20 pm

Phobias dominate the lives of millions

Britain's National Phobics' Society, a charitable organisation dedicated to relieving and supporting those suffering from anxiety disorders, is set to release a report claiming that the lives of millions of people are disrupted daily by phobias of various kinds.

Phobia dominates the daily lives of rising numbers of people, a report will claim this week.

One in eight Britons will suffer from phobia in the course of their lifetimes, including four million with a fear linked to the use of public lavatories, according to the National Phobics Society.

The London Sunday Telegraph news report lists several common phobias, including fear of public toilets, supermarkets, buses, buttons, clowns, fish, jewellery, birds, balloons, motorways, and injections and needles.

One phobia often discussed nowadays is not mentioned, however.  That would be homophobia.  Maybe that's not as debilitating a problem as is sometimes claimed.

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October 7th, 2007 at 6:01 pm

Judge mocks “Antichrist”; disciples get upset

Jose Luis de Jesus Miranda, the cult leader who has proclaimed himself both Jesus Christ and the Antichrist, went through a divorce case recently in Miami.  His devotees got their dander up over the comments of Judge Robert Pineiro.  They marched outside the courthouse earlier this week, claiming that the judge mocked Mr Antichrist during the proceedings.

"We are not going to allow any American judge to deny the right of an American citizen, especially not to God on earth," said supporter Axel Poessy.

God on earth is an American citizen.  You learn something new every day.

h/t: Religion News Blog

Previous related post: Self-proclaimed Anti-Christ visits followers in Canada

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October 7th, 2007 at 3:47 pm

Abortion: “Best predictor” of breast cancer

A longitudinal study of national cancer registry data has found that induced abortion is the factor with the greatest explanatory power in accounting for the incidence of breast cancer.  Fertility and age at first birth were also determined to be important risk factors.  The study examined data on abortion and breast cancer from 1971 through 2004 in eight European countries with comprehensive medical records.

Recent trends in breast cancer incidence by age and socio-economic status were compared with trends in potential explanatory variables.

Seven known risk factors were examined as an explanation for these trends:

When a woman is nulliparous [never given birth to a child], an induced abortion has a greater carcinogenic effect because it leaves breast cells in a state of interrupted hormonal development in which they are more susceptible.

A low age at first birth is protective.

Childlessness increases the risk.

A larger number of children (higher fertility) increases protection.

Breastfeeding gives additional protection.

Hormonal contraceptives are conducive to breast cancer.

Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) is also conducive to breast cancer.

The researcher, Patrick S. Carroll, of Pension and Population Research Institute (PAPRI), London, then used the results to model breast cancer incidence in England and Wales.

Previous forecasts using the same model and incidence data for years through 1997 for England & Wales are compared with numbers of cancers observed in years from 1998–2004 in an Appendix. The forecast predicted 100.5% of the cancers observed in 2003, and 97.5% of those observed in 2004.

The study was published last week in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, a peer-reviewed journal of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons.

More details on the biology and the research of the abortion-breast cancer link can be found here or here.

h/t: LifeSite and Binky

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October 7th, 2007 at 2:56 pm

Abortion: Risk factor for mental health problems

Evidence is accumulating that women who have elective abortions risk depression and other mental-health issues.  The irony is that most abortions are done on the grounds that carrying a baby to term poses a potential threat to the mother’s mental health.  The clinical reality, however, is that abortion entails significant and well-documented risks.

David Fergusson, a New Zealand psychologist, is the author of a longitudinal study on abortion published in 2006. He tends to garner media attention because he is a self-described pro-choice atheist, not a social conservative. His work showed negative mental-health outcomes for women post-abortion, while controlling for their pre-abortion mental health.

Dr. Fergusson's results did not just show an increase in general depression. They showed increased effects across a wide array of outcomes, including substance-abuse disorders, anxiety, suicide and suicide ideation. According to Dr. Fergusson's work, post-abortive women show increased risk of phobia, panic attacks and fears "or just a generalized feeling of concern and anxiety at a level deemed to be clinically significant."

Other psychological researchers have reported similar findings.

So much evidence is being brought forward that the American Psychological Association recently pulled from its website a statement denying any link between abortion and depression.

h/t: Binky

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October 7th, 2007 at 2:25 pm

Canadian health care system no more equitable than the American

Canada's single-payer health-care system is often said to be more equitable than the American system with its greater reliance on private-sector provision and payment.  Because all Canadians have equal access to health-care services irrespective of ability to pay, it is widely believed that health outcomes are distributed more evenly across socio-economic groups in Canada than in the United States.  But is this in fact the case?

An analytical approach to this question would look at correlation between personal income and personal health status in the two countries.  If the hypothesis that Canada’s system is more equitable is correct, one would expect to observe a closer relationship between income and health in the US compared to Canada.

The Joint Canada/US Survey of Health (JCUSH) conducted in 2002-2003 under the direction of Statistics Canada and the US National Center for Health Statistics gathered the data necessary to examine this issue.  A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research compares heath status in the two countries based on these data.  The paper is entitled “Health Status, Health Care, and Inequality: Canada vs. the U.S.” by June E. O’Neill and Dave M. O’Neill, both of Baruch College.

The analysis shows that the data do not support the hypothesis that Canada’s health care system is more equitable than that of the US.  Not only is health status in Canada no more evenly distributed than in the US, the analysis indicates that Canada is actually slightly less equitable than the US.

Canada has no more abolished the tendency for health status to improve with income than have other countries. Indeed, the health-income gradient is more prominent in Canada than it is in the U.S. The need to ration when care is delivered “free” ultimately leads to long waits or unavailable services and to unmet needs. In the U.S. costs are more often a source of unmet needs. But costs may be more easily overcome than the absence of services. When asked about satisfaction with health services and the ranking of the quality of services recently received, more U.S. residents than Canadians respond that they are fully satisfied and rank quality of care as excellent.

The paper’s abstract is posted here; the full paper can be purchased for US$5 via a link at the same page.  (The above quote is from p. 17 of the full paper.)

Statistics Canada’s summary of findings from the JCUSH is posted here.  The National Center for Health Statistics has a portal to the survey here.  The official JCUSH analytical report can be downloaded here or here.

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October 7th, 2007 at 6:00 am

The Eighteenth Sunday After Trinity

The collect for today, the 18th Sunday after Trinity, from the 1662 Book of Common Prayer:

Lord, we beseech thee, grant thy people grace to withstand the temptations of the world, the flesh, and the devil, and with pure hearts and minds to follow thee the only God; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

The Epistle: 1 Corinthians 1:4-8
The Gospel: St Matthew 22:34-46

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