Magic Statistics

“I accept no responsibility for statistics, which are a form of magic beyond my comprehension.” — Robertson Davies

September 18th, 2007 at 9:55 pm

Giant Mine widows not yet compensated, 15 years on

Fifteen years ago today, at 8:45 am on 18 September 1992, a underground bomb blast killed nine replacement workers at the Giant Mine, Yellowknife, Northwest Territories.  The gold mine had been hit by a bitter labour dispute four months earlier.  Mine management had locked out the workers the day before a strike was to begin.

The bomb had been set by striking worker Roger Warren, who was convicted of nine counts of murder in 1995 and is now serving a life sentence at a Manitoba penitentiary.

Widows of the nine victims launched a wrongful-death lawsuit in 1995.  Despite winning a $10 million judgment almost three years ago, they have received nothing.  The appeal of the judgment is to be heard soon, but the case may eventually land before the Supreme Court.

Next month, a Yellowknife court will hear appeals of the N.W.T. Supreme Court's 2004 judgment, in which Justice Arthur Lutz ordered a number of defendants to pay $10.7 million in damages to the miners' widows. The results of those appeals could end up before Canada's highest court.
. . .
In December 2004, following a decade of preparation and the longest and largest trial held in Yellowknife, Lutz concluded that other parties — including the Canadian Auto Workers union, the N.W.T. government, mine owner Royal Oak Ventures, security firm Pinkerton's of Canada Ltd., and two union members — held responsibility for the deaths, along with Warren.

In his decision, Lutz ruled that none of the involved parties did enough to control the escalating picket-line violence that led up to the explosion.

Both plaintiffs and defendants appealed that ruling.  The families were miffed that the judge had not found the hated mine CEO Margaret (Peggy) Witte personally liable.

After initially confessing to the crime, Warren recanted before his criminal trial began and maintained his innocence throughout.  In 2003, he re-confirmed his original confession, but said he had been provoked by the company and by his union.

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September 18th, 2007 at 9:02 pm

Will Ncube run against Mugabe for president?

Pius Ncube resigned as Roman Catholic Archbishop of Bulawayo last week amid allegations of adultery, in what is widely believed to be a trap set by Robert Mugabe.

If Mugabe thought he had given his arch-enemy the bum’s rush, he may be in for a shock.  It is now being reported that Ncube will run against Mugabe for the presidency of Zimbabwe.

The disgraced prelate is about to announce that, far from being consigned to oblivion, he plans to head up a sensational new political movement in Zimbabwe, and will be a charismatic, popular candidate in the elections next spring.

According to this report, Ncube has already met with several political groups.  A Pius Ncube Solidarity Coalition has been formed with the support of over 60 community organisations.

SW Radio Africa tried to confirm the report but without success.  A sister at the Bulawayo cathedral said the former archbishop is still working there and that she knew nothing about any political ambitions he may have.  Ncube spent the day in prayer and was unavailable for comment.

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September 18th, 2007 at 7:56 pm

Lesbians sue doctor over birth of twins

A lesbian couple in Australia is suing their IVF doctor after one of them bore twins instead the one child they had asked for.  They want the doctor to pay them over $400,000 to cover the cost of raising the extra baby girl.

The birth mother, who cannot be identified, told the court she and her partner finally decided to keep the kid they originally did not want.

She said adopting out one child would be unfair to both girls.

"The primary consideration was that adoption shifted the burden of responsibility for this situation onto the children," she said.

"The burden is not the children's to bear. The burden is ours alone."

If the burden is yours “alone”, why are you trying to impose part of it on the doctor?

I admit I have little sympathy for the plaintiffs.  The two earn over $100,000 annually, which places them in the upper income echelons of Australian families, yet they want someone else to subsidise their child-rearing expenses.

The doctor acknowledges that he mistakenly inserted two embryos, but this civil suit is uncalled for, in my view.  The couple made several unsuccessful attempts to conceive via artificial insemination and finally turned to IVF in desperation.  They are very fortunate to have babies at all.  Instead of being thankful, however, they are acting like greedy ingrates.

A fine pair of parents, they’ll be.

h/t: Pearcey Report

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September 18th, 2007 at 7:12 pm

Prehistoric creatures exacerbate global warming

Mammoth dung and other prehistoric excreta have been buried beneath Arctic permafrost for millennia.  Some of that ancient organic matter is now rising to the surface as permafrost thaws.  At least one Russian scientist doesn’t like the smell of that.

[Sergei] Zimov, a scientist who for almost 30 years has studied climate change in Russia's Arctic, believes that as this organic matter becomes exposed to the air it will accelerate global warming faster than even some of the most pessimistic forecasts.

"This will lead to a type of global warming which will be impossible to stop," he said.

When the organic matter left behind by mammoths and other wildlife is exposed to the air by the thawing permafrost, his theory runs, microbes that have been dormant for thousands of years spring back into action.

As a by-product they emit carbon dioxide and — even more damaging in terms of its impact on the climate — methane gas.

It is estimated that mankind currently dumps 7 billion tonnes of carbon per year into the atmosphere.  Zimov believes that 500 billion tonnes of carbon lie buried in the earth’s permafrost zones.

Pondering his theory that unstoppable global warming is already bubbling up in the Arctic, he sheds his scientist’s hat.

"If you don't stop emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere … the Kyoto Protocol (an international pact aimed at reducing greenhouse emissions) will seem like childish prattle."

Many would say it already does.

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UPDATE (19 Sep.): John Ray at Greenie Watch reminds us that parts of Siberia suffered record cold in the winter of 2005-2006.  Temperatures in some areas dropped to the lowest in a century.

Siberia is affected by a regular climate cycle called the Arctic Oscillation. So its temperature can vary considerably from year to year. There is no evidence of an overall change beyond the changes due to the oscillation.

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September 18th, 2007 at 6:21 pm

Loss of sea ice unlikely to endanger polar bears

Based on empirical research, the Nunavut government's manager of wildlife research rejects the US Geological Survey report claiming that two-thirds of the world's polar bears will die off within fifty years.  The report is based on the supposition that declining sea ice triggered by global warming will cause polar bears to starve and die, which Dr Mitch Taylor dismisses as "naïve and presumptuous".

The USGS presumption is flatly contradicted by an ongoing three-year study in Davis Strait, an area near the southern limit of the polar bear's customary range.  In fact, polar bears are healthy and their numbers are increasing.

According to the USGS, Davis Strait ought to be among the first places where polar bears will starve due to shrinking seasonal sea ice, which scientists say will deprive the bears of a vital platform to hunt seals.

Yet "Davis Strait is crawling with polar bears," Taylor said. "It's not safe to camp there. They're fat. The mothers have cubs. The cubs are in good shape."

Dr Taylor also says he and many Inuit hunters have seen bears catch seals without ice.

The Government of Nunavut is conducting a study of the Davis Strait bear population. Results of the study won't be released until 2008, but Taylor says it appears there are some 3,000 bears in an area - a big jump from the current estimate of about 850 bears.

"That's not theory. That's not based on a model. That's observation of reality," he says.

Diminished sea ice notwithstanding, polar bears are so numerous in some areas that increased hunting quotas are being considered.  Several of the bears observed in the study are among the largest on record.

Taylor does not disagree that climate change is occurring; nevertheless, he maintains that projections of declining polar bear numbers are unwarranted.

Canada is home to two-thirds of the world's polar bears, and 12 of Canada's 13 polar bear populations live in Nunavut.

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