Canada’s population contains a higher proportion of seniors than ever before, according to 2006 Census data released today by Statistics Canada. Those aged 65 and over made up a record high 13.7% of the total population, while the proportion aged less than 15 reached a record low of only 17.7%. If the most recent population projections are borne out, seniors will outnumber under-15s in less than ten years, as shown in the chart below.
Population aging is attributable to two demographic factors.
First, the fertility rate, which has averaged 1.6 children per woman over the last 30 years, is below the replacement level. Second, the life expectancy of Canadians increased appreciably during the 20th century and now stands at 82.5 years for women and 77.7 years for men. As a result of that increase, an increasing number of Canadians are reaching the age of 65, and once this age is attained, they also live longer.
Canada’s high immigration increases the overall population growth rate but, because the average immigrant is about 30 years old, has a negligible impact on aging.
The median age of Canadians in 2006 was 39.5, almost 50% higher than the median age of 27.2 seen in the 1956 Census.
Nevertheless, Canada is one of the youngest countries in the G8. Only the United States has a smaller proportion of seniors. (See chart below.)
Because Canada has a significantly lower fertility rate than the US, however, Canada’s population is set to age at a much faster pace than that of our southern neighbour.
Today’s Census release corroborates labour force projections released last month indicating that labour force participation is set to drop off quickly within the next decade, as baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1965) reach retirement age much faster than new young workers enter the labour force.
[T]he number of people aged 55 to 64 has never been so high, at nearly 3.7 million in 2006. Today, they make up 16.9% of the working-age population, or about one potential worker in six, compared with 14.1% in 2001. It is expected that the number of people aged 55 to 64 will continue to grow over the next few years and could represent more than 20% of the working-age population in 2016, when more than one in five potential workers will be in the 55 to 64 age group.
With workers generally leaving the workforce between the ages of 55 and 64, Canada has never had so many people close to retirement.
The proportion of seniors, already one in seven—the largest ever seen in Canadian history—will only continue to increase. This will present huge challenges for our country’s medical care, old age support, and other social welfare programs.
Source: Martel, Laurent, and Éric Caron Malenfant, “Portrait of the Canadian Population in 2006, by Age and Sex: Findings”, 2006 Census: Analysis series, Statistics Canada, July 2007.
http://www12.statcan.ca/english/census06/analysis/agesex/index.cfm
(accessed 17 July 2007).
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