Magic Statistics

“I accept no responsibility for statistics, which are a form of magic beyond my comprehension.” — Robertson Davies

June 3rd, 2007 at 11:18 pm

School closed after Quran verses erased from a wall

I kid you not.  A nursing school in Pakistan has been ordered closed and five Christians—the principal and four students—suspended after it was alleged that verses from the Qur’an had been “erased from a wall”.

A nursing school was shut down and its Christian principal and four Christian students suspended after Muslim pupils accused unknown people of desecrating verses from the Quran, officials said Saturday.

The action by the management of the Pakistan Institute of Medical Science — the main hospital in Islamabad — came two weeks after Muslim nurses protested that verses from Islam's holy book regarding proper manners in drinking water had been erased from a wall.

So, who dunnit?  My bet’s on the janitor.  Janitorial staff are supposed to clean graffiti off walls, aren’t they?

This farcical incident gets worse.  The principal doesn’t know why she’s been disciplined, and no one knows why the four students have been suspended.

Principal Stella Hidayat said she was in shock after being suspended."I was on leave when this incident happened. I don't know why they punished me," she told The Associated Press.
. . .
It was not known why the four Christian students were suspended.

They don’t know who committed the “blasphemy”, so authorities automatically target Christians.

Shahbaz Bhatti, head of the All Pakistan Minorities Alliance, has asked that the principal and students be re-instated.  I hope that the five will be vindicated but, at the same time, I don’t think I’d want to work or attend school in such a poisonous environment.

h/t: Jihad Watch

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June 3rd, 2007 at 10:48 pm

Dion does Alberta

Liberal leader Stephane Dion visited Alberta yesterday to rally his troops.  I don’t know if local Liberals were encouraged, but I’m just scratching my head.  What was he going on about?

Dion accused Harper of moving Canada toward a republican system of government — a style he said is not even popular with most Americans anymore.

"I think of our neighbour to the south as a friend, a great friend," he said.

"They are an ally, and a great ally, but they are not our model. Our model needs to start here in Canada."

Where on earth did Mr Dion get the idea that our prime minister wants to get rid of the monarchy and transform our government from a British parliamentary system to a presidential system with separation of legislative and executive branches?  Is he hallucinating again?

"I'm telling you, this Quebecer is much better for Alberta than the prime minister we have today," he said, referring to the fact Harper is from Calgary.

Right!  This from the guy who said on a previous visit to Alberta that oil-sands jobs are bad for the economy.

Dion also poked fun at Alberta's traditionally staunch Conservative voting pattern, calling provincial Liberal candidates "the most courageous Liberals on earth."

“Foolhardy” is more like it.

h/t: National News Watch

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June 3rd, 2007 at 9:25 pm

But tests are so depressing

There’s nothing like a test to damage pupils’ happiness at the best of times.  Folly reigns in children’s education.

Children as young as four are to take "happiness tests" in a controversial drive to force schools to improve the well-being of pupils, it has emerged.

Thousands of youngsters are expected to be quizzed on whether they are feeling optimistic, confident, loved and interested in other people.

They will be set questionnaires similar to the self-help quizzes found in women's magazines to check they are "feeling good about myself" and "dealing with problems well".

It’s really quite remarkable.  Every time you think public education cannot possibly become any stupider than it already has, twaddle like that comes along.  "Dumbed-down" doesn't even begin to describe it.

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June 3rd, 2007 at 9:10 pm

Statisticians warn abortion will destroy society

Sad to say, the statisticians referred to are not Canadians; they're South Koreans.

South Korea's pro-abortion policy and the practice of female feticide are creating one of the country's worse [sic] social problems. Unless the government does something, there will be fewer women in marriageable age and 11.9 per cent of all South Korean males will not be able to find a mate to marry within ten years, this according to estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in its 2006 report on gender ratio disparity.

Unless the government stops female feticides and introduces pro-family policies, there will be 3.43 million males against 3.02 million females in the 25-34 age group-that means a ratio of 88 women per every 100 men.

As a result, almost one man in six will not find an available match of the opposite sex to get married.

So far, the report contains what appears to be sound and responsible statistical analysis.  It’s best, in my view, to stick to reporting the numbers and clearly defensible inferences based thereon, especially when dealing with such a controversial topic.

Wait a minute.  What's this?

The NSO warns that the trend might turn into a serious social problem as single men could become violent and cause havoc in their social milieu.

Statisticians warning of impending violence and chaos if present trends continue?  How did that get past the minister responsible for the NSO?  In my world, politicians have been known to balk at publications saying the adult employment rate "plummeted"; they prefer "decreased" or something equally innocuous.

Not that I’m necessarily opposed to such strong language.  South Korea, like most of the western world, is staring demographic implosion in the face, and stark language from government agencies (among others) is called for.

Experts attribute this trend to the availability of abortion and the deep-seated Korean (and Asian) cultural preference for sons to pass on the family name and take care of their old parents.

For Cho Yeong-tae, a professor at Seoul National University, since South Korea's birth rate is among the lowest in the world, if the government continues to support abortion there will be fewer and fewer sons and daughters. The country will become a desert, but before that happens, it will experience violence and social tensions never seen before.

I looked up the website of the National Statistics Office, Republic of Korea, in hopes of reading the publication in question, but I couldn’t find it.  (Although it may be one of those for sale at the site; I didn't take a close look at all of them.)  Also, I found the site quite difficult to navigate.  A few of the internal links opened pages that automatically reduced the size of my browser window to about one-quarter of its original size.  I hate it when that happens.

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June 3rd, 2007 at 8:29 pm

The Very Rev Peter Williams: Trinity Sunday Sermon

After this morning’s service at Christ Church Cathedral, Whitehorse, I surprised Dean Peter Williams by asking him if I could post his sermon at my blog.  He agreed, but said I should mention that he offers no original thoughts, but relies on the wisdom of others.  Also, no electronic copy is available; he writes all his sermons out by hand.  (Thanks to the StatWife for transcription and editorial assistance.)

Dean Peter’s message centres on the importance of knowing God as a Trinity.

Once there was a village where all the inhabitants were blind.  One day a man passed through riding an elephant.  A group of the villagers cried out asking the rider to let them touch the great beast.  They had heard about elephants, but had never been close to one.  Six of them were allowed to approach the animal.  Each was led to touch a different part of the body.  After a while the rider left, and the blind men hurried back to the village to share their experience.  “What’s an elephant like?” the crowd asked them.  “I know all about elephants”, cried the man who touched the elephant’s side.  “He’s long and narrow, and built like a wall.”  “Nonsense”, shouted the man who touched the elephants’ tusk.  “He’s rather short, round, and smooth, but very sharp.  An elephant is like a spear.”  A third man had touched the ear and he joined in:  “It’s nothing like a wall or spear.  An elephant is like a gigantic leaf, made of thick wool carpet.  It moves when you touch it.”  “I disagree”, said the man who handled the trunk.  “An elephant is rather like a large snake.”  A fifth man shouted his disapproval.  He had touched the leg of the great beast.  “None of you has described the animal accurately.  It’s round and reaches toward the heavens like a tree.”  The sixth man had been placed on the elephant’s back.  He cried out, “Can none of you accurately describe an elephant?  He is like a gigantic moving mountain!”  Well, to this day the argument hasn’t been resolved, and the people of that village have no idea what an elephant looks like.

Now you may have suspected that today’s sermon isn’t about elephants.  Our basic question today is, “How do we know God?”  From time to time I have had someone say to me, “I’m not religious” – which usually means that they don’t go to church; don’t pray on a regular basis and don’t read the Bible … It comes as a shock for them to learn that God isn’t religious either!  These same people often hold high moral principles, have deep respect and care for others – in fact, they embrace a whole set of values which shout that there is a great deal more to life than self, and more meaning to existence than physical reality.

I believe there is a God and there is within us all the capacity to respond to the reality and presence of God.  We all have a deep need to know God and to worship, love and obey him.  There are, of course, good reasons why so many people fear God or choose to live without reference to Him.  All of us in various ways have disregarded God and quietly rebelled against Him, and the thought of now being accountable to God is rather intimidating.  After all, God knows all about us and has the final say on right and wrong in the world.  As sinners, we aren’t always very happy approaching the One who is the Standard of perfection and the Judge of us all!

A number of world religions have expressed this fear with grossly horrible depictions of deities which strike terror to the human heart.  A whole series of religious rituals are designed to keep such deities at bay – to pacify them so they don’t interfere with the practical affairs of life.  Other religions seek to tap into divine power for personal benefit and gain. 

A few centuries back, the British Parliament was debating revisions to the Book of Common Prayer.  During one of the breaks in the debate, one MP emerged muttering, “I don’t see what all the debate is about.  Surely we all believe in some sort of something.”  Now some folks would sympathize with this man and agree that if everyone believes in some sort of something – then that is all that matters.  The blind men, we might argue, were describing their different experiences of the same elephant.  But their different explanations not only seem contradictory, all of them represent a misunderstanding of what an elephant is.  Even if they could be persuaded to sit down amicably and discuss it all together, there’s still no way they would come up with a true description of an elephant. 

God is not only there – He has spoken – He has revealed Himself , as Francis Schaeffer used to say, not exhaustively but sufficiently.  He has taken the guesswork out of things.  It is not simply a question of our varying experiences of something spiritual, of the transcendent.  Our experiences and guesstimates can be measured and judged by an objective revelation.  For God has spoken!

In our day of hyper-tolerance, of openness and dialogue, some are offended that Jesus said, “I am the way, and the truth, and the life; no one comes to the Father but by me.”  But Jesus wasn’t here to share experiences of the divine.  He is the second person of the Trinity; so He could say, “Anyone who has seen me has seen the Father!”  Jesus was among us to reveal the nature and reality of God.  The words I say to you, said Jesus, are not just my own.  Rather it is the Father living in me who is doing His work.

The Sunday after Pentecost is always Trinity Sunday.  The belief in the Three-in-One God arose from how God has revealed Himself to us.  The Old Testament clearly teaches that there is only one God.  Yet the New Testament has shown us that Jesus Christ is God and that the Holy Spirit is also God.  In seeking to teach clearly what God has revealed of Himself, the Church has formulated the doctrine of the Trinity – not the three gods of Mormonism, nor Jehovah plus a lesser “god” called Jesus and an impersonal force called The Holy Spirit as Jehovah’s Witnesses teach, but One God in Three Persons.  Both the Apostles’ and Nicene Creeds have a Trinitarian framework.  The vast majority of Anglicans worldwide see the use of these creeds as acts of allegiance to the Holy Trinity. 

The belief that God is one, personal and triune is central to the Christian faith.  It relates closely to the belief in the personal nature of God, the Incarnation, the Atonement, the life in the Spirit, and finally to the relation of the redeemed to God in Christ.  Trinitarian faith does not come from the early Church Fathers; it comes from the faith and teaching of the apostles.  The definitions produced through the debates of the first four centuries were the attempts of the Church to grasp and express adequately the truths of divine revelation, and to guard against false teaching.

What is known as the Shema, found in Deuteronomy 6, is recited by the Jews as part of their daily prayer.  It begins with the words, “Hear, O Israel, the Lord our God, the Lord is One.”  This is a clear and strong monotheistic assertion (meaning that there is only One God).  It is reaffirmed many times throughout the Old Testament and is regarded as foundational for the Hebrew people.  In the New Testament that Oneness of God is reaffirmed.  The words of the Shema are quoted approvingly by Jesus.

Yet Jesus Himself was revealed to us as “God in the flesh” and Christians faced the need to distinguish Jesus from the Father, yet to identify Him with God.  While Jesus said “I and the Father are One” and “anyone who has seen Me has seen the Father”, His prayer to the Father was nonetheless real, and His experience of separation from the Father on the cross was authentic.  The doctrine of The Trinity originated from the truth of the Incarnation.  Jesus Christ is truly and distinctly God the Son.

Following Pentecost comes the understanding, not simply that the Holy Spirit is divine, but that He is personal, distinctly personal!  To sin against the Holy Spirit is an eternal sin, we are told.  When the disciples were brought before the authorities, the Holy Spirit taught them in that very moment what they should say, just as Jesus had promised.  Jesus spoke about Him as “The Counsellor … the Spirit of Truth who goes out from the Father. … He will testify about me.” 

Jim Packer in his excellent book Knowing God has written:  “Knowing about God is crucially important for the living of our lives.  As it would be cruel to an Amazonian tribesman to fly him to London, put him down without explanation in Trafalgar Square and leave him, as one who knew nothing of English or England, so we are cruel to ourselves when we try to live in this world without knowing about the God whose world it is and who runs it."

The world becomes a strange, mad, and painful place, and life within it a disappointing and unpleasant business, for those who do not know God.  Disregard the study of God and you sentence yourself to stumble and blunder through life blindfolded as it were, with no sense of direction and no understanding of what surrounds you.  This way you can waste your life and lose your soul.  God HAS revealed Himself.  We know about him so that we can personally come to know Him.

The Father has loved us with an everlasting love, revealing His nature in creation and history.  The Son came into our stream of history to bear the penalty of our sins and open the door of forgiveness for us.  The Spirit comes to indwell us – to apply the words and work of the Son to our lives and to empower and direct us as His body.  As John says, “God is Love”.  Love is the very nature of God in his Three-in-Oneness.  He has made us in His image – with a capacity and need to love and to be loved.  As we come to know Him, His character will be revealed in our lives.  So then, let us love God, love one another, and reach out with caring and redemptive love to others.

Amen.

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June 3rd, 2007 at 6:00 am

Trinity-Sunday

Click for larger viewThe collect for today, Trinity-Sunday, from the 1662 Book of Common Prayer:

Almighty and everlasting God, who hast given unto us thy servants grace by the confession of a true faith to acknowledge the glory of the eternal Trinity, and in the power of the Divine Majesty to worship the Unity; We beseech thee, that thou wouldest keep us stedfast in this faith, and evermore defend us from all adversities, who livest and reignest, one God, world without end. Amen.

For the Epistle: Revelation 4:1-11
The Gospel: St John 3:1-15

Artwork: Andrei Rublev, The Old Testament Trinity, c. 1410, Tempera on wood, Tretjakov Gallery, Moscow.

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