Magic Statistics

A South Korean aid agency estimates that 70% of North Koreans do not have sufficient food.  Malnutrition has become common and, if the situation is not rectified, starvation could follow.

The Seoul-based Good Friends aid agency said there are concerns among mid-level North Korean officials that residents of cities who do not receive regular wages or rations and have no arable land could begin to starve, adding that farmers also have had food shortages since last month.
. . .
It declined to give details of where it obtained the information. However, many of its previous reports of what was happening inside isolated North Korea have later been confirmed.

Food shortages were exacerbated by massive floods last summer and South Korea's suspension of food aid to protest against North Korea's missile tests in July, according to the New York-based group Human Rights Watch.

South Korea has not yet decided when to resume food aid.

Previous related post: North Koreans left to starve and freeze

The Juneau Empire has a rundown of "new fiction for adult readers" at local public libraries.  I didn’t get past the first item on the list.

"Mathematicians in Love," by Rudy Rucker. As Bela and Paul work to complete their graduate program in mathematics by creating a paracomputer that will predict the future, they stumble onto a bridge to an alternate universe called La Hampa. Full of mathematically inclined refugees from still other realities, La Hampa also is home to the Earth's creator, a giant jellyfish-like creature who creates a new world every Friday, Hampa-time. But once they've visited La Hampa, is it possible to return to Earth? And will it be the same one they left?

To be honest, I thought the reporter made that up.  I did not believe that a book with such a silly title—and a plot to match—could have been written, much less published.

A quick Google search proved me wrong.

Obviously, science fiction isn’t my thing.

Catholic adoption agencies in Britain could avoid obeying the Sexual Orientation Regulations (SORs) by making use of what is being called a “loophole”.  The SORs apply only to government-funded entities.  It may be a loophole to some, but others would see it as simple common sense. Stop accepting public funds already.

Roman Catholic adoption agencies could break away from the state to avoid being shut down under gay rights laws.

Agencies could continue to refuse to place children with gay couples if they stop taking money from the Government and become a private body, it has emerged.

I like that: “It has emerged”.  You mean it used to be a deep, dark secret?

Equalities Minister Meg Munn admitted the nine Catholic adoption societies in England would be released from the demands of the Sexual Orientation Regulations if they forego cash from state-run social services and instead rely entirely on collections from supporters.

The announcement caused speculation that the Catholic Church could launch an appeal to England's one million Catholic churchgoers to make up the £10million agencies get from local councils.

Go for it!  It sounds like a no-brainer to me, but Catholic officials are still thinkin’ about it.

Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, leader of Catholics in England and Wales, who in January threatened to close the adoption agencies, said "it remains to be seen" what the church will do now.

Is this hesitancy a reflection of the extent to which Britons, including church agencies, are accustomed to wallowing in the public trough?  If so, my humble suggestion is: Get over it.  The SORs demonstrate the extent to which government has turned against the church, so perhaps it’s best for British Christians to start making their own way.

Previous related posts:

• Someone has an exemption from the SORs
• Tom Wright denounces Labour government over gay adoption rules
• Catholic agencies to defy homosexual adoption regulations

Based on the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS), Statistics Canada has estimated that, in 2003, 1.0% of Canadians aged 18-59 considered themselves to be homosexual and a further 0.7% considered themselves bisexual.  The survey was designed to covered the population aged 12 and up, but the question on sexuality was asked only of those aged 18 and over.  Yet, for unstated reasons, the published analysis of this question only included those aged 18 through 59.

ChristianNewsWire today carries a report on a discussion of the CCHS sexual-orientation findings by medical researchers Dr Paul Cameron and Dr Kirk Cameron.

According to two researchers, the largest random sex survey ever conducted has reported that only 1.4% of adults engaged in homosexual behavior.  Analyzing a 2003 Canadian Community survey of 121,300 adults, Drs. Paul and Kirk Cameron told attendees of the Eastern Psychological Association Convention that 2% of 18-44 year olds, 1% of 50 year olds, and only a third of a percent of subjects 60+ considered themselves homosexual. Thus homosexual activity was much more common among younger adults.
. . .
"No one can say that this statistic is 'the bedrock truth,'" Paul Cameron said, "but even with attempts to increase the percentage of active homosexuals – which Statistics Canada appears to have done by reporting only the results of those under the age of 60 – the 1.4% is a figure that has to be taken very seriously.

Some details seem to me garbled.  The question (reproduced below) asked about sexual orientation, not behaviour; and the estimated percentages refer to the sum total of homosexual and bisexuals.

Also, the difference between 1.4% and 1.7% is quite small and could even be within the margin of error.  (Statistics Canada did not publish a confidence interval or coefficient of variation.)

The Camerons purchased a custom tabulation from Statistics Canada showing a breakdown of sexual orientation responses by age group.  Based on analysis of this tabulation, they arrived at their estimate of 1.4%.

In my view, the Camerons are quite correct to say that the estimate of 1.4% is highly reliable and certainly the best estimate of the proportion of Canadians with homosexual or bisexual orientation.

The CCHS is one of Statistics Canada’s largest, most ambitious, and most comprehensive surveys.  A lengthy bi-annual survey, it covers a very wide range of health issues.  In 2003, it contained one question on sexual orientation:

Do you consider yourself to be:
[INTERVIEWER: Read categories to respondent.]

1 … heterosexual? (sexual relations with people of the opposite sex)
2 … homosexual, that is lesbian or gay? (sexual relations with people of your own sex)
3 … bisexual? (sexual relations with people of both sexes)

The question is found on page 273 of this pdf document.

The full paper by Paul and Kirk Cameron can be accessed via this page.

h/t: Virtue Online

The World Tourism Organisation (WTO) has announced that, in 2006, tourism hit a new high for the third consecutive year.  2007 looks to be another record-setting year for the world tourism industry.  If you think that would be good news, you would be wrong, according to the WTO’s own director general.  South Africa’s News24 reports:

"Tourism is unfortunately one of the vectors of (climate) change at the moment and contributes, through its excesses, to the process of global warming," World Tourism Organisation (WTO) director general Francesco Frangialli told an international conference on meteorology in Madrid this week.

In 2006, 842 million people took a holiday in a foreign country and 40% of them flew to their destinations. That's 336 million people, or more than the population of the United States, taking trips which spew greenhouse gases that fuel global warming.

Total air transport still only accounts for two percent of carbon dioxide (CO2), the principal greenhouse gas, in the atmosphere, but its contribution is growing and tourism is one of the driving forces behind rising passenger numbers, Frangialli said.

After a little investigation, I discovered that News24 slanted its report just a bit.  WTO’s press release of Mr Frangelli’s speech is posted here.  Besides the discussion of tourism’s role in climate change, a large portion of his speech was devoted to the benefits tourism brings to the world economy.

Tourism has shown to be a strong contributor to the balance of payments, as well as a highly labour-intensive activity that opens up opportunities for the small businesses that provide products and services to the tourism industry. Its impact is particularly strong in the local farming and fishing industries, handicrafts and even the construction industry. In these countries, tourism creates many direct and indirect jobs. It represents fertile ground for private initiative. It serves as a foothold for the development of a market economy where small and medium-sized enterprises can expand and flourish. In poor rural areas, it often constitutes the only alternative to declining subsistence.
. . .
Tourism is one of the major export sectors of poor countries and a leading source of foreign exchange in 46 of the 49 Least Developed Countries.

I guess News24 missed that part of the speech for some reason.

Here are a few highlights from the 2006 tourism economic report.  Despite health scares, rising oil prices, and fears of terrorist attacks, world tourism grew by 4.5% to a total of 842 million arrivals.  Africa saw the highest growth rate, 8.1%, followed by Asia and the Pacific at 7.6%.  A list of the top destinations for international travellers is posted here (2004 data).  France is far in the lead, with almost 10% of all international tourist arrivals.

h/t: Pearcey Report

Previous related posts:

• Dirtiest hotel in Britain “not a complete nightmare”
• How to get Brits to visit Paris? Mock the French
• Yukon gets lots of tourists