Magic Statistics

“I accept no responsibility for statistics, which are a form of magic beyond my comprehension.” — Robertson Davies

March 18th, 2007 at 9:07 pm

Medical science vindicates church’s anti-condom stance

Western health officials have often accused the Catholic church of encouraging the spread of AIDS by objecting to the use of condoms.  The church maintains that government distribution of condoms promotes sexual promiscuity and that abstinence and fidelity are the only effective ways to inhibit AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases.

Recent medical scientific studies support the church's view that the prevalence of AIDS cannot be reduced unless individuals change their behaviour.  A 2006 article published in the British Medical Journal suggested that the protection afforded by condoms may encourage riskier behaviour, thus largely offsetting the usefulness of condoms.

Consistent use of condoms has been shown to reduce the efficiency of transmission of HIV and various other sexually transmitted infections, but the perception that using condoms can reduce the risk of HIV infection may have contributed to increases in inconsistent use, which has minimal protective effect, as well as to a possible neglect of the risks of having multiple sexual partners. Thus, the protective effect of promoting condoms may be attenuated at the population level and could even be offset by aggregate increases in risky sexual behaviour. [footnotes omitted]

Another study published last year in Science magazine found that reduction in the prevalence of AIDS in Zimbabwe was associated with changes in sexual behaviour.

An article in the February 2007 issue of the Journal of Youth and Adolescence supports the view that delaying sexual activity reduces the risk of later delinquent behaviour.

The article, "Adolescent Sexual Debut and Later Delinquency," by Stacy Armour and Dana Haynie, observed that the question of ill effects resulting from sex outside marriage is a controversial point in the debate over whether to promote abstinence. Up until now, however, there has been little research on the topic.

Armour and Haynie used data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health to examine interconnections between the age of sexual debut and subsequent delinquency problems. The study covered some 12,000 students and the findings were controlled for variables such as age, race and family structure.

Among the conclusions from the study was the finding that premature initiation of sexual activity increases the risks of delinquency. Similarly, delaying sexual activity later than one's peers "offers a protective effect and reduces the risks of engaging in subsequent delinquency." The corresponding negative and positive effects go beyond adolescence and persist until early adulthood.

The specific delinquent behaviours considered were: vandalism and property damage, theft, and drug trafficking.

The abstract of the latter article is posted here; the full text can be viewed here (html) or here (pdf).

These studies provide solid support for the church's contention that the root problem of the AIDS pandemic is not medical or technical, but moral.  Sexually transmitted diseases are best combated, not by handing out condoms, but by instilling the virtues of abstinence in singleness and fidelity in marriage.

h/t: Big News Network.com - Breaking Religious News

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March 18th, 2007 at 8:05 pm

Zimbabwean opposition MP attacked at airport

Four Zimbabwean opposition leaders were prevented from leaving the country today.  One was assaulted at Harare International Airport by unidentified individuals wielding iron bars.

MP Nelson Chamisa said he was beaten as he tried to leave [Zimbabwe]. The government denied its forces were involved.

Earlier two women activists were stopped as they tried to leave to get treatment for injuries sustained in police custody, their lawyer said.

And Arthur Mutambara was re-arrested as he was about to leave the country.

Mr Chamisa had been set to travel to Belgium for an Africa Caribbean Pacific-EU meeting.  He has now been admitted to hospital with a fractured skull.

Only last Sunday, he was one of several arrested at a Save Zimbabwe Campaign prayer rally.  Today’s Observer carries a graphic report of the tortures inflicted on him and others while in police custody.

Some observers believe that decades of international inaction have emboldened Robert Mugabe to escalate his savage crackdown on political opponents and dissidents.

The universal condemnation of the police assault on Zimbabwean opposition leaders on March 11 is unlikely to move President Robert Mugabe. Ordinary Zimbabwean interviewed by IWPR say their president has got away with this kind of thing for decades, and the international community has done little more than issue protests from a safe distance.

Fifty opposition leaders on their way to attend a prayer meeting at Zimbabwe Grounds in the working class suburb of Highfield, Harare, were arrested and then savagely assaulted in police cells on March 11.

The images of a badly beaten Morgan Tsvangirai, president of the Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, that flashed round the globe this week may have jolted the international community from its slumber.

Zimbabwe’s main opposition leader, Tsvangirai was in intensive care after sustaining serious head injuries from a police beating. Other prominent opposition figures also suffered serious injuries.
. . .
Yet the new international outcry seems unlikely to alarm President Mugabe, given that he has not been swayed by similar criticism of his past actions over the last 27 years.

It is believed that today’s actions are intended to prevent opposition figures from speaking directly to foreign media about recent atrocities committed by government forces.  Such testimonies would generate further negative publicity at a time when Mugabe’s support within his own ZANU-PF party is slipping.

Photos of Nelson Chamisa showing the injuries he suffered today are posted at This Is Zimbabwe.  Scroll down the page for more photos and video clips of recent violence in Zimbabwe.

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March 18th, 2007 at 3:49 pm

Montrealistan

According to a book set for release this week, police are closely monitoring thirty suspected Muslim terrorists in the Montreal area.

Montrealers are wrong to think they're safe from terrorism, Fabrice de Pierrebourg says. In fact, he says, the city is a haven for planning, preparing, and financing terrorist acts.

Pierrebourg's book, Montrealistan, profiles 20 of the 30 suspected terrorists, including a man believed to have played a role in a wave of terrorist acts in France in the 1990s who now works as a taxi driver in this city.

Montréalistan, published by Stanké, goes on sale Wednesday.

h/t: littlegreenfootballs

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March 18th, 2007 at 3:01 pm

German study foresees bleak future for independent Kosovo

A German study condemns Western governments for refusing to face the failure of international attempts to build a viable democratic state in Kosovo.  If independence is granted under present conditions, the region will likely descend into chaos and revolutionary violence.

It [the report] claimed that the United Nations administration and the Nato-led peacekeeping mission had been infiltrated by organised crime syndicates, and accused the international bodies of mismanagement, corruption and organisational chaos.
. . .
Britain was widely regarded as the driving force behind the 1999 Nato air strikes against the regime of Slobodan Milosevic, the former Serbian president, which led to the separation of the province, with its majority Albanian population, from the Serbian state. Since then, Kosovo has been a UN-administered protectorate secured by an international military presence.

But a study by the Institute for European Politics, a Berlin think-tank, says the severely impoverished territory has little prospect of democratic progress because the building of a functioning multi-ethnic society has failed and does not exist "outside the bureaucratic phrases of the international community". The study describes the European Union's security strategy for an independent Kosovo as flawed. The authors accuse Nato and the UN of creating a culture of systematic repression of critical reports in order to present Kosovo as a success story.

A spokesman for the international peace-keeping force pointedly refused to comment on the study’s contents.

The Serbian government has offered Kosovo a large measure of local self-government, but the province’s Albanian leaders will not be satisfied with anything less than complete sovereignty.

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March 18th, 2007 at 2:39 pm

UK paper apologises for supporting cannabis legalisation

Click for larger viewOne of Britain’s leading newspapers, Independent On Sunday, today carries a front-page apology for its decade-long campaign to legalise cannabis.  In 1997, the paper called for cannabis to be decriminalised, but today it reverses its stand.  The change of mind is driven by the skyrocketing number of people being treated for cannabis-induced psychosis, addiction, and other psychological problems.  One of several reports in today’s Independent refers to a “mental health time bomb”.

Record numbers of teenagers are requiring drug treatment as a result of smoking skunk, the highly potent cannabis strain that is 25 times stronger than resin sold a decade ago.

More than 22,000 people were treated last year for cannabis addiction - and almost half of those affected were under 18. With doctors and drugs experts warning that skunk can be as damaging as cocaine and heroin, leading to mental health problems and psychosis for thousands of teenagers, The Independent on Sunday has today reversed its landmark campaign for cannabis use to be decriminalised.

A decade after this newspaper's stance culminated in a 16,000-strong pro-cannabis march to London's Hyde Park - and was credited with forcing the Government to downgrade the legal status of cannabis to class C - an IoS editorial states that there is growing proof that skunk causes mental illness and psychosis.

The decision comes as statistics from the NHS National Treatment Agency show that the number of young people in treatment almost doubled from about 5,000 in 2005 to 9,600 in 2006, and that 13,000 adults also needed treatment.

The newspaper defends its former support for legalisation by saying that the cannabis consumed nowadays is not the same stuff hippies used to consume back in the 1960s.

Growing new strains of cannabis under ultra-violet lights, dealers have been able to intensify the quantity of the chemical tetrahydrocannabidinol (THC) - a psycho-active compound that disrupts brain activity and distorts sensory perceptions. In short, the part that gets you high. But feelings of euphoria and relaxation can be soured by paranoia and memory loss. Significantly, teenagers whose brains are still developing are more sensitive to the sudden rush of THC into the brain.

Today record numbers of young people are in treatment programmes for skunk abuse and hospital admissions due to the drug are at their highest ever.

New research on twenty illicit drugs and substances shows that cannabis is more dangerous than LSD or ecstasy.

Over 60% of cannabis sold in the UK is grown at home, compared to only 11% in the late 1990s.  At the same time, the price has fallen to £43 per ounce, barely one-third of the 1994 average price of £120.

I, for one, am glad to see the Independent get its head out of the sand about cannabis.  Still, the paper’s claim that, ten years ago, it was not wrong to advocate decriminalization, is disturbing.  The drug has changed, says the leader writer: Its psychotropic effects are much more powerful than they used to be.

We quote John Maynard Keynes in our defence: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

Yet, the fundamental fact—that cannabis can induce addiction and psychosis—was known even in the 1960s.  What has changed is only the frequency of cannabis-triggered psychological harm.

In any case, one hopes that the Independent on Sunday will now campaign against cannabis usage as forcefully as it formerly campaigned for decriminalisation.

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March 18th, 2007 at 6:00 am

The Fourth Sunday in Lent

The collect for today, the Fourth Sunday in Lent, from the 1662 Book of Common Prayer:

Grant, we beseech thee, Almighty God, that we, who for our evil deeds do worthily deserve to be punished, by the comfort of thy grace may mercifully be relieved; through our Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ. Amen.

The Epistle: Galatians 4:21-31
The Gospel: St John 6:1-14

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