Magic Statistics

“I accept no responsibility for statistics, which are a form of magic beyond my comprehension.” — Robertson Davies

December 31st, 2006 at 5:31 pm

Happy New Year, Belarus: Your gas is about to be cut off

It's been a busy year for the state-owned Russian natural gas monopoly Gazprom, which Vladimir Putin has developed into a tool for pressuring small neighbouring countries to turn against the West and forge closer relations with Moscow.

At the beginning of 2006, Gazprom put Ukraine through the wringer by radically hiking the price of gas exports to the pro-Western former Soviet republic.  The gas supply was shut off on 1 January after Ukraine refused to pay, then restored three days later after an agreement was reached.

Now at the end of the year, it's déjà vu all over again—but with a twist. Gazprom has rounded on perhaps Russia’s closest ally: Belarus, a country that already supports Russia's foreign policy.  Gazprom has reiterated its decision that, as of tomorrow, the price charged to Belarus for Russian natural gas will more than double.

"All this means destruction of our relations" with Russia, Belarus's president, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, said in comments carried on state television on Friday.

Mr. Lukashenko, often referred to as Europe's last dictator, called Gazprom's position "blackmail" and said Belarussians would rather live in unheated dugouts than pay the higher price.

Russia's deputy prime minister, Dmitri Medvedev, who is also chairman of Gazprom, retorted that Belarus was "blackmailing" Europe by threatening the transit pipelines that cross that country.

The latest price increases have added to concerns about the reliability of the oil and natural gas flowing from Russia, which is a major supplier to Europe but has increasingly wielded its energy resources for political leverage.

Why would Russia strong-arm a close ally?  Some analysts believe that Russia's motivation this time is not political imperialism, but simple greed.  It just wants the money.  Welcome to the world of the real Russian mafia.

I don't know what the Russian meansGazprom has given Belarus the option of paying for gas with small unmarked bills shares in Beltransgaz, Belarus's state gas company.  In a few short years, Gazprom could be majority owner of Beltransgaz.

Gazprom has also infuriated residents of St Petersburg.  It is planning to erect a 300-metre glass office tower that would profane the city’s historic skyline so badly that some Russian bloggers have started a campaign against the company.

The graphic at right shows a monster named Gazilla threatening St Petersburg’s Smolny Cathedral.  If you click on the graphic, you will be taken to a flash game created by the St Petersburg branch of the Yabloko [Russian Democratic] Party.  The page is entirely in Russian, but the game isn’t hard to figure out: When Gazilla appears, point and fire ASAP.

h/t: Global Voices Online

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UPDATE (31 Dec.): Belarus avoided freezing in the dark with only seconds to spare.  Two minutes before midnight, a deal was signed for a price marginally below what Gazprom had originally demanded. The deal also calls for Gazprom to purchase 50% of Beltransgaz over the next four years.

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December 31st, 2006 at 3:57 pm

Daycare damages children’s development

Award-winning children's writer and former Children's Laureate Michael Morpurgo finds it "utterly extraordinary" that half of British mothers with children under five work outside the home.  He is convinced that daycare (“nursery” in Britain] damages children’s development and life prospects.

He said lack of contact between children and parents was directly to blame for rising levels of mental health problems, sleep disorders and anorexia in young people.
. . .
"We pack our children off to care groups or even to school, but many countries in Europe do not send their children until they are seven," he said. "They live in the bosom of their family. That is where they are nurtured – within the nest. That is where they can grow their wings, they can learn to fly." He added: "I don't think it is an accident that one in 10 of our children is suffering from mental health problems, from sleep disorders, from eating disorders and things like that."

Evidence has accumulated in the past few years indicating that children placed in daycare are more likely to have behavioural and other problems.  British think tank Institute for Public Policy Research reported last summer that infants and toddlers sent to nursery are more likely than other children to have learning difficulties and poorer health.  An in-depth study of Quebec’s universal daycare program found that daycare tends to have “extensive and significant negative impacts on child behaviour and parental anxiety and unhappiness”.

At least one Labour cabinet secretary has expressed serious misgivings about putting infants and toddlers in nursery.  Beverley Hughes, Minister for Children, Young People and Families, recently said that placing very young children in nursery is contrary to their best interests.

Other high-profile British child-care experts have spoken out against nursery for the very young.

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December 31st, 2006 at 6:00 am

The Sunday After Christmas-Day

The collect for today, the Sunday After Christmas-Day, from the 1662 Book of Common Prayer:

Almighty God, who hast given us thy only-begotten son to take our nature upon him, and as at this time to be born of a pure Virgin; Grant that we being regenerate, and made thy children by adoption and grace, may daily be renewed by thy Holy Spirit; through the same our Lord Jesus Christ, who llveth and reigneth with thee and the same Spirit, ever one God, world without end.  Amen.

The Epistle: Galatians 4:1-7
The Gospel: St Matthew 1:18-25 

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