Magic Statistics

“I accept no responsibility for statistics, which are a form of magic beyond my comprehension.” — Robertson Davies

November 2nd, 2006 at 8:49 pm

Is Pakistan breaking apart?

Veteran Washington Post India correspondent Selig Harrison observes multiple ethnic insurgency movements in Pakistan and wonders whether the country will survive in one piece.  Baluch and Sindhi minorities, both centred in the south-west, have been so successful fighting the central government that military resources have been moved away from the Afghan border area.

To suppress a growing Baluch insurgency in the southwest, President Pervez Musharraf has diverted significant military forces from the Afghan frontier. Six Pakistani army brigades, paramilitary forces totalling 35,000 men, and U.S.-supplied helicopter gunships and F-16 fighter jets are currently deployed in the Kohlu mountains and surrounding areas.

The United States, which dismisses the insurgency as an "internal" Pakistani affair, should be actively promoting a political settlement between Islamabad and the Baluch for two urgent reasons: to stop the diversion of U.S.-supplied equipment from the battle against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and to end the misuse of U.S.-supplied aircraft in bombing and strafing operations that have killed hundreds of women and children in Baluchistan since January of 2005. Even more important, a settlement is critical to head off a steadily developing disintegration of Pakistan that would destabilize the entire South Asian region.

In Sindh, adjacent to Baluchistan, separatists who share Baluch opposition to Gen. Musharraf's regime are reviving their long-simmering movement for a sovereign Sindhi state, or a Sindhi-Baluch federation, that would stretch along the Arabian Sea from Iran to the Indian border.

Insurgent leaders hope that India will intervene in their behalf, as it did in 1971 when Bangladesh separated from Pakistan.

As long as the military continues to rule Pakistan under General Musharraf, the Baluch and Sindh rebellions will probably grow increasingly radical, multiplying the risk of Pakistan’s fragmentation.

For access to the full column, click here.

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November 2nd, 2006 at 8:17 pm

This I gotta see

Scientists devise a new plan for peering into the wonderful world of quantum physics

The quantum world is about to get bigger thanks to a technique that will allow objects big enough to see with the naked eye to exist in two places at once.

h/t: Faith-Science News

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November 2nd, 2006 at 8:13 pm

Say it ain’t so

China slammed for bird flu cover-up

The World Health Organization aimed a broadside at the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture on Wednesday, blasting it for not alerting the global community about a new variant of the worrisome H5N1 avian flu virus, for hoarding virus samples and for not doing enough to contain the spread of H5N1 in poultry.

What?  China covered something up?  No, there must be some mistake.

Previous related post: The Great Firewall of China

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November 2nd, 2006 at 8:08 pm

Cocaine-using celebs help destabilise Colombia

Colombian Vice-President Francisco Santos has attacked cocaine-snorting celebrities at the London unveiling of “Cocaine Curse”, a campaign to raise awareness of the repercussions of cocaine traffic on the South American country. The campaign will also feature victims of land mines, kidnapping survivors, and friends and relatives of innocents killed by drug traffickers.

The cocaine trade is said to kill hundreds of children annually and destroy tropical rain-forests.   It is also financing Marxist rebels warring against the Colombian government.

The logo of the Colombian campaign is: "Cocaine not only destroys you, it also destroys a country". It is hoped that it will raise awareness about the effects the narcotics trade is having on Colombia as it enters its 44th year of civil conflict.

The warring factions, among them the Marxist guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), are estimated to earn more than £2 billion a year from illegal drugs, providing fuel for the violence.

"We need to tell Europeans that that line of coke they snort is tainted in blood," Mr Santos said. His message was brutally reinforced yesterday when more than 400 FARC guerrillas took over the town of Tierradentro in Cordoba.

The rebels killed 16 policemen along with a civilian, while six members of the security forces were missing.

A UN study has found that there are 3.4 million cocaine users in Europe, about one-quarter of the global market.

Kate MossOne particular focus of Mr Santos’s ire is supermodel Kate Moss, who was photographed last year apparently using cocaine.  Although she “accepted responsibility” for the scandal, no charges were ever brought against her.  She emerged from the controversy with more lucrative modeling contracts then ever.

"To me its baffling, that somebody who helps cause so much pain in Colombia is doing better than ever and winning more contracts than ever," Santos told The Associated Press in an interview.

"And I never once heard her say, 'I'm sorry.' When in Colombia, policeman, judges, journalists, common men and women are dying every day because of (cocaine consumption) that hurts," the official added.

Santos said he'd love Moss to see what cocaine consumption does to Colombia, where drug-financed armed groups murder hundreds annually and force thousands to abandon their homes.

There was no comment from Ms Moss or her modeling agency.

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November 2nd, 2006 at 6:24 pm

Faith-based youth groups best for teens’ personal growth

A new study indicates that teenagers, when asked which activities provide the greatest personal and interpersonal growth, rate faith-based youth groups highest.

Researchers from the University of Illinois surveyed over 2200 eleventh-grade students in nineteen schools about experiences in virtually all their activities, including part-time jobs, hanging out with friends, sports, service clubs, scouting, etc., as well as the classroom.  With respect to personal and interpersonal growth experiences, faith-based youth groups were rated the best.

"Faith-based youth groups give teens rich opportunities for identity development, learning to regulate their emotions, and developing positive relationships with peers and meaningful connections with adults," said Reed W. Larson, the Pampered Chef, Ltd., Endowed Chair of Family Resiliency at the U of I.

The teens in the study rated faith-based youth groups higher than sports, performance and fine arts groups, academic clubs, service groups, and community-oriented activities such as scouting, said the researcher.

"Youth reported frequent personal and social growth experiences across these activities, but they reported them most often in religious youth groups," he said.

For example, in the study, 66 percent of students in faith-based activities reported "This activity got me to thinking about who I am," compared to 33 percent in other organized activities, he said.

Forty percent of students in faith-based groups said they "got to know people in the community," compared to 20 percent of students in other organized activities. And 46 percent of teens in faith-based groups reported "This activity improved my relationship with my parents" versus 21 percent of students in other activities, he said.

Dr Larson thinks that growth experiences are more frequent in faith-based groups because such groups are organised around issues of belief that are important to teenagers.

"Although scholars tend to ignore the spiritual dimension of teenagers' lives, research suggests that religion is an important part of teens' experiences," he added.

While other activities also afforded positive growth experiences in some areas, faith-based youth groups had high rankings across a broad spectrum of growth categories.

h/t: Faith-Science News

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