Veteran Washington Post India correspondent Selig Harrison observes multiple ethnic insurgency movements in Pakistan and wonders whether the country will survive in one piece. Baluch and Sindhi minorities, both centred in the south-west, have been so successful fighting the central government that military resources have been moved away from the Afghan border area.
To suppress a growing Baluch insurgency in the southwest, President Pervez Musharraf has diverted significant military forces from the Afghan frontier. Six Pakistani army brigades, paramilitary forces totalling 35,000 men, and U.S.-supplied helicopter gunships and F-16 fighter jets are currently deployed in the Kohlu mountains and surrounding areas.
The United States, which dismisses the insurgency as an "internal" Pakistani affair, should be actively promoting a political settlement between Islamabad and the Baluch for two urgent reasons: to stop the diversion of U.S.-supplied equipment from the battle against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and to end the misuse of U.S.-supplied aircraft in bombing and strafing operations that have killed hundreds of women and children in Baluchistan since January of 2005. Even more important, a settlement is critical to head off a steadily developing disintegration of Pakistan that would destabilize the entire South Asian region.
In Sindh, adjacent to Baluchistan, separatists who share Baluch opposition to Gen. Musharraf's regime are reviving their long-simmering movement for a sovereign Sindhi state, or a Sindhi-Baluch federation, that would stretch along the Arabian Sea from Iran to the Indian border.
Insurgent leaders hope that India will intervene in their behalf, as it did in 1971 when Bangladesh separated from Pakistan.
As long as the military continues to rule Pakistan under General Musharraf, the Baluch and Sindh rebellions will probably grow increasingly radical, multiplying the risk of Pakistan’s fragmentation.
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