Magic Statistics

The Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics, Statistics Canada, today released data on crime victimisation among residents of Canada's three northern territories.  In comparing these data with victimisation statistics in the ten provinces, an interesting paradox emerges.  Residents of the northern territories report a rate of violent crime victimisation almost three times that of those who live in the provinces.  Yet, those same northerners are more likely to say they personally feel safe from crime.

The rate of violent victimization in Canada's territories, based on information provided by Canadians themselves, was almost three times the rate for residents in the rest of the country, according to data from a survey that examined the extent and nature of criminal victimization.
. . .
Almost 4 in every 10 residents of the territories aged 15 and over reported that they were victimized at least once in the 12 months prior to being interviewed. This figure was well above the level of 28% for provincial residents who were victimized over the same time period.
. . .
Northern residents feel safer than those in the rest of Canada

Although northern residents experienced higher levels of violent victimization than did provincial residents, they were more likely to report feeling safe from crime.

In 2004, 54% of northern residents said they were "very satisfied" with their personal safety from crime, compared to 44% of residents in the rest of Canada.

So, are northerners complacent about violent crime or are southerners paranoid?

The full report contains further analysis of spousal violence, including the chart below.  (See page 11 of the pdf document.)

As the chart shows, when the three territories are viewed individually, notable variations appear in the reported prevalence of spousal violence.

(The superscript "E" next to an estimate indicates that the estimate is subject to a relatively wide sampling error and should therefore be used with caution.  At the same time, the sampling error is not so high that Statistics Canada deems the estimate unpublishable, so it's good enough for most general purposes.)

Generally speaking, levels of spousal violence are much higher in previous relationships than in current unions. While this finding holds true for residents of the North, the difference between current and previous partner rates of violence is smaller. In 2004, approximately 20% of northern residents reported having experienced spousal violence by an ex-partner while 9% of residents suffered violence by a current partner. By comparison, 19% of provincial residents reported violence by an ex-spouse and 3% reported violence by a current spouse. [reference omitted]

Note also that no separate analyses of legal marriages and common-law relationships are given.

Statistics Canada also reported some social and demographic characteristics of northerners that may help account for the higher rates of violent crime.

Northern residents tend to be younger on average than residents in the rest of Canada; they have higher proportions of lone-parent families and common-law families; they have higher rates of unemployment and they have higher proportions of Aboriginal residents, compared to the provinces.

On a personal note, I've lived in Whitehorse for 18 years, have never been a victim of violent crime, and have never felt unsafe.  Well, on one or two occasions, I've been worried about bears, but never about people.

Sources:

de Léséleuc, Sylvain, and Jodi-Anne Brzozowski, 2006. Victimization and Offending in Canada's Territories, 2004 and 2005. Statistics Canada catalogue no. 85F0033MIE2006011. http://www.statcan.ca/english/research/85F0033MIE/85F0033MIE2006011.pdf (accessed 30 October).

Statistics Canada, 2006.. "Victimization and offending in the North". The Daily, 30 October. Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-XIE.
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/061030/d061030b.htm (accessed 30 October 2006).

Previous related posts:

• Major gap in Statistics Canada’s violence against women study
• Violent crime more prevalent among aboriginals
• A primer on crime statistics

Julian Fantino has been at his new job as Commissioner of the Ontario Provincial Police for not even three weeks, and he's already worrying about matters that aren't his responsibility.  Is he preparing us for more OPP inaction at Caledonia?

Ontario's highest-ranking police officer said Monday that a contentious native occupation entering its ninth month is beyond his ability to resolve.

Uh, Commissioner Fantino, you weren't hired as a negotiator or mediator but as a law enforcement officer.  You don't have to "resolve" anything; your job is to ensure that the law is obeyed in Ontario.

Newly appointed Ontario Provincial Police Commissioner Julian Fantino said his role in the complex issue is to keep the peace in the town of Caledonia.
. . .
"Our job is to preserve the peace, deal with offences, and bring those who transgress the laws of the land to justice."

So, go and bring transgressors to justice already.  Enforce the court order that's been flouted for months.  Remove the thugs illegally occupying land.

Mr Fantino sounds reluctant about making sure that laws are respected.  If that's the case, why was he chosen to head the provincial police?  Shouldn’t they have hired someone more eager to uphold the rule of law?

h/t: Dust My Broom

Previous related posts:

• Judge perseveres on Caledonia; OPP launches investigation
• Anarchy in Caledonia
• Judge to police and province: Why didn’t you enforce my order?

UPDATE (30 Oct.):  CNEWS has re-written the story and removed the introductory sentence that I quoted above.  Even with the re-write, however, Commissioner Fantino still sounds more interested in tranquillity than in apprehending the law-breakers.

In a recent letter to Karen Kinsley, president and CEO of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge laid into the crown corporation for introducing new mortgage packages that, he said, will stimulate higher housing prices and, therewith, increase the overall inflation rate.

"I read with interest and dismay your press release of June 28 which indicated that CMHC would offer mortgage insurance for interest-only loans and for amortizations of up to 35 years," the two-page letter says.

"Particularly disturbing to me is the rationale you gave that 'these innovative solutions will allow more Canadians to buy homes and to do so sooner.' " The corporation's actions are likely to drive up house prices and make homes less affordable, not more, Mr. Dodge says in the blunt missive, uncharacteristic of the usually tempered language of the central bank.

By stoking inflation with proposed new policies, CMHC is undermining the work of the central bank with "very unhelpful" actions, Mr. Dodge said.

Mr Dodge appears correct in his belief that CMHC's "innovative solutions" will tend to fuel higher housing prices.  The new mortgage offers will enable more Canadians to buy houses, thus increasing housing demand; in the absence of supply increases, that can only drive up selling prices.

The mortgage packages newly offered by CHMC have long been available in the US home-mortgage market.  Late last week, new economic figures were released showing that US housing prices nose-dived almost 10% in September—the largest fall in over 35 years.  Did no-interest mortgages have anything to do with that?

A recent study found that, of Americans who took out home mortgages in 2005, 29% have zero equity in their homes or owe more than their homes are worth.

Dodge’s letter to Kinsley was written 30 June, but only now obtained under the Access to Information Act.