Magic Statistics

Baroness Caroline Cox has journeyed to some of the most inhospitable and dangerous places in the world to visit persecuted Christians, told Western Christians of their suffering, and organised humanitarian campaigns on their behalf.  She just returned from her latest travels.

WHILE most lords and ladies of the Upper House were sunning themselves somewhere safe during the August recess, Caroline Cox made her 61st visit to Nagorno Karabakh, an Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan. She went back again last month. In the past 15 years or so she has been to war-torn Southern Sudan 28 times and at least 15 times to Burma, not to mention countless visits to Nigeria, Indonesia and even North Korea.

A former deputy speaker of the House of Lords, Baroness Cox has been sentenced in absentia to five years in prison in Sudan and has had a price on her head in Azerbaijan. There are not many 69-year-old grandmothers who would put their life on the line to visit “forgotten people in forgotten lands”. On her travels to meet persecuted Christians, she has been shot down in a helicopter, targeted by Jihad warriors and seen the sort of carnage most of us will never see mediated through television let alone in the flesh.

Her recent book Cox’s Book of Modern Saints and Martyrs recounts many stories of Christians persecuted and executed for their faith.  So, she knows something about martyrdom, and the difference between martyrdom and suicide terrorism.

Lady Cox is clear to draw a distinction between the martyrs in her book and suicide bombers. “Christian martyrdom is all premised on transforming love, never on hate, revenge or bitterness. These people don’t seek martyrdom — but they have bravely persisted in their faith knowing they may be martyred. So much of the rhetoric that accompanies the suicide bombers is associated with real expressions of hatred. Whether it’s a justified resentment is another question.”

Lady Cox is CEO of Humanitarian Aid Relief Trust in support of the forgotten, oppressed, and persecuted of Europe, Asia, and Africa.  She has also recently co-authored This Immoral Trade: Slavery in the 21st Century.

Previous related posts:

• Do words said under duress mean nothing?
• Martyrdom in Christianity and Islam

About ten million farm animals were slaughtered in the UK during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD).  A paper by animal disease scientist Paul Kitching and two other veterinary experts, published by the World Organisation for Animal Health, documents that the mass slaughter was made far larger than necessary by a combination of incorrect statistics, bad science, and inappropriate modeling.

The mistakes that were made in attempting to control the outbreak are laid bare in a devastating paper recently compiled by Paul Kitching, one of the world’s leading veterinary experts, and published by the World Organisation for Animal Health. It finds that, of the ten million animals slaughtered, more than a third were perfectly healthy; out of the 10,000 or so farms where sheep were killed, only 1,300 were infected with the disease; scientists were wrong to claim that the FMD virus was being spread through airborne infection; the epidemic had reached its peak before the culling began; the infamous 3km killing zone was without justification; estimates of infected premises were little better than guesswork.

The financial cost of the FMD program in the UK is estimated at over US$12 billion, in addition to social costs represented by widespread public disgust and horror at the perceived excessive and inhumane nature of the slaughter.

A novel strategy of pre-emptive culling of animals on premises adjacent to infected farms contributed to the “grossly excessive” slaughter.  The paper by Kitching et al examines the mathematical models that drove the strategy and finds them inadequate.

The 2001 predictive models were constructed in an environment of poor-quality data (e.g. they used out-of-date census data for stock levels), and poor epidemiological knowledge (e.g. the transmission characteristics of the virus strain, and the distribution of the initially infected farms, were unknown). Therefore, their use as predictive tools was inappropriate.
. . .
The authors of this paper argue that the models were not fit for the purpose of predicting the course of the epidemic and the effects of control measures. The models also remain unvalidated. Their use in predicting the effects of control strategies was therefore imprudent.

In retrospect, very little of value was added to the FMD control policy by the use of predictive models. The latter therefore failed the most pragmatic ‘litmus test’: namely, usefulness. The key question for any model is whether decisions made with it are more correct than those made without it. However, the consequences of following the recommendations of these models were severe: economically, in terms of cost to the country; socially, in terms of misery and even suicides among those involved in the slaughter programme; and scientifically, in the abuse of predictive models, and their possible ultimate adverse effects on disease control policy in the future. [footnotes and references omitted]

The computer models were generated and implemented with only minimal input from veterinarians and other experts in animal diseases.  As a working statistician, I find this simply astonishing.  Statistics, and computer models based thereon, are only as good as the information used in their estimation.  If relevant expertise is not incorporated, the model has no solid basis.  Any conformity between its predictions and real world outcomes would be purely coincidental.

Simply put, the FMD model illustrates the old adage, “garbage in, garbage out”.

The full report by Kitching et al can be downloaded here (pdf).

Paul Kitching is Director, Winnipeg Laboratory, National Centre for Foreign Animal Disease, Canadian Food Inspection Agency.

Keith Richards’s sister-in-law Marsha Hansen has just released a book on gospel music along with a companion CD of spirituals.  Her famous brother-in-law with the bad-boy reputation has been a bedrock of support and encouragement in her decision to leave teaching and devote herself to singing.

It’s unlikely you’ve heard of Marsha Hansen. Sister-in-law to the Rolling Stones’ Keith Richards and Richard’s wife, ex-supermodel Patti Hansen, she’s married to Hansen’s brother, Rodney, who happens to be a Lutheran pastor. Her family connections are impressive. And while that alone has gotten her press, it’s her music, intelligence, and faith that make her unique, as well as a fascinating interview.

Hansen has just released her first book, My Soul Is a Witness: the Message of the Spirituals in Word and Song (Augsburg Books) which includes her second CD of African-American spirituals.

It might surprise some to learn that her mentor and number one cheerleader is her brother-in-law. Richards put together friends and members of the Stones’ touring band for the disc, recording them in his home studio. The result is a relaxed, loose album that’s part honky tonk, part sanctuary.

Marsha says that she and her husband were displeased when they first heard that Patti Hansen was marrying Keith, but now she is moved to tears while speaking of the untruths said about him.

"I want to say how profoundly I feel about this man, in terms of someone who's there for you, someone who if you're sick cares that you're sick. Somebody who listens to you when you talk, somebody who notices if you're feeling left out, or isolated, that he's right there. He's my brother. I don't know what I would do without him…” She begins to weep; “…I'm sorry I'm getting emotional, but he means so much to me…It's amazing how people don't know this man."

In the past few years, it has been reported that Keith is now a Christian.  Asked to comment, Marsha says that Patti is a “devout Christian”, but she cannot quite say that about Keith.

“I find Keith to be an intellectually thoughtful man, and a spiritual man, but one I definitely would not label as Christian in a traditional sense. Nevertheless, I see in him a man who lives the precepts that Jesus taught, and who honors God in his inner life. Institutional religion is just not for him.”

Ms Hansen’s first CD of spirituals, I Know the Lord Laid His Hands On Me (1999), was recorded with only keyboard accompaniment by Rob Whitlock; Keith arranged for the two to meet.  Her second CD was recorded at Keith’s Connecticut home with a band made up of musicians who had toured with the Beach Boys, the Stones and Bob Dylan.  The photo at left shows Marsha’s daughter Jordan, who also sings on the new CD, with her Uncle Keith.

Read the whole thing for more on Marsha Hansen’s musical career and her reflections on the meaning of black spiritual music, as well as additional tidbits about Keith Richards.  (After reading it, you may feel the need to buy the book and CD.  I know I do.)

h/t: Thunderstruck

Previous related post: Keith Richards knows who he is

Why care about Georgia anyway?

After foiling several attempted Russian coups, Georgia finally had enough, deporting Russian officials for espionage. Russian President Vladmir Putin then hit the roof. Georgian immigrants have been deported, Georgian-owned businesses in Russia harassed, and economic sanctions imposed.

Pro-Russian propagandists have been at work, even in Western Europe, denouncing Georgia simply for wanting to be an independent democracy even though it borders Russia.

But why should the West care about tiny Georgia?  Edward Lucas, writing in The Times of London, presents two good reasons.

The first reason is that small defeats now mean bigger ones later. Russia’s petrocrats are determined to stem and reverse their country’s geopolitical retreat. If they can derail [Georgian President] Mr [Mikhail] Saakashvili, it sends a powerful signal elsewhere. If Georgia falls, then others will be next. Russia’s hold over Ukraine will strengthen. Moldova, the weakest country in Europe, will buckle too. Then the shadow will stretch over the poorly governed and demoralised ex-communists of Central Europe and the Baltics. That will bring Russian neo-imperialism to our front door.

Secondly, Georgia is the only way of bringing the oil and gas riches of Central Asia to world markets that does not go through Russia. A pioneering oil pipeline from Baku in Azerbaijan to Ceyhan on the southern Turkish coast goes through Georgia. There is — literally — no other way to break the stranglehold that Russia has on our energy supplies.

Georgia deserves strong European support, not only to defend freedom and democracy, but also to prevent Russia from gaining control over Europe’s energy sources.

Previous related posts:

• Russia to recognise rebel Georgian provinces?
• Russia throwing out Georgian immigrants
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Ontario’s economy will slow almost to a “standstill” in the next two years, dragging Canada’s economic growth to below 3%, according to the Royal Bank of Canada’s latest economic forecast.  For the country as a whole, the bank foresees real GDP increases of 2.8% this year and 2.7% in 2007.

RBC predicted that Alberta would post the strongest growth of any province, at 6.3 per cent this year and 4.5 next, driven by the booming energy sector. But it warned that the province's booming growth is leading to building inflationary pressures, as wages have soared 8 per cent this year and the province suffers from labour and materials shortages.

It said the country's traditional economic driver, Ontario, would be the big growth laggard, expanding by a mere 1.5 per cent this year and 2 per cent next year, barely escaping a recession. “The economy isn't very far from a standstill,” the bank said in its report, noting that the province is suffering from a contraction in the manufacturing sector, weak retail sales, and a slowing construction and housing sector.

Strong growth is also forecast for BC and Newfoundland, while the Quebec economy will continue to struggle.

RBC predicted that the U.S. economy would grow at about a 2.5-per-cent annualized rate in the second half of 2006 and in 2007, amid slowing consumer spending and a cooler housing market. It predicted that the Canadian dollar would decline to 85.5 cents (U.S.) by the end of 2006 and to 80.6 cents by the end of 2007, from 88 cents currently.

I think those predicted declines in the Canadian dollar are too steep.  As long as government finances remain sound—low interest rates, federal budget surpluses, and national debt reductions—I can’t see our dollar losing eight more cents against the US dollar.  (But stranger things have happened.)

For a graphic presentation of the RBC forecast, click here.

Previous related posts:

• Ontario heading toward recession?
• Vancouver area unemployment to continue falling
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