Magic Statistics

The UN, which has been occupying Kosovo with the aid of NATO forces since 1999, appears set to recommend full independence for the Balkan state.  James Bissett, former Canadian Ambassador to Yugoslavia, has written a powerful column in today’s Globe and Mail arguing that Kosovan independence would be a huge mistake.

For the past seven years Kosovo has become one of the most dangerous places on Earth. It is the center of heroin, weapons and human trafficking into Western Europe. Murder and abduction of non –Albanians are a daily occurrence. Civil society is non-existent and living standards are equivalent to those of Haiti. There is evidence that Islamic extremists with Al Qaeda connections are a growing presence. In short, Kosovo has all the characteristics of a failed state.
. . .
The U N resolution that ended the bombing campaign against Serbia guaranteed that Kosovo would have a functioning civil society, democratic institutions, security for all citizens and respect for the rule of law. It called for the disarming of the Kosovo Liberation Army and other armed groups. It provided for the return to Kosovo of limited numbers of Serbian security forces to guard the Christian Holy places. And it reasserted Serbia’s sovereignty over Kosovo.

Sadly, it seems the UN and NATO had no intention of honouring these commitments. These are hard facts and they stand as a testimony of failure. The performance of these two international institutions has been marked by duplicity, double standards and cowardice.

If Kosovo is granted independence, a precedent would be set that could allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to claim that the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia should also be independent nations.  Georgia would certainly dispute that, possibly leading to eruption of another bloody war in the Caucasus, almost next door to Chechnya.

The Albanian majority in Kosovo has systematically destroyed some 150 Christian churches and monasteries as part of a campaign to eradicate Christianity in the region.  The UN and NATO occupiers have made no effort to stop the destruction or bring the vandals to justice.  Christian leaders have already voiced concerns that independence for Kosovo would endanger Christians remaining in the region.

The full column in the Globe is available only to subscribers, but it has also been posted at Global Research.ca, where you can read the whole thing for free.

Previous related posts:

• Russia to recognise rebel Georgian provinces?
• Here’s a bright idea: Hand Iraq over to the UN
• Independence for Kosovo will jeopardise Christians

Despite undisputed charges that US companies are co-operating with efforts to censor and otherwise restrict information available to Chinese 'net surfers, China denies everything.

While many countries block off some Web sites, China has long drawn heightened scrutiny because of the breadth and sophistication of its Internet censorship.

Which is why it came as a surprise on Tuesday when a Chinese government official claimed at a United Nations summit here that no Net censorship existed at all.

The only problem: Few cases of Net censorship are as carefully and publicly documented as the Great Firewall of China. A study by researchers at Harvard Law School found 19,032 Web sites that were inaccessible inside China.

Today was not a good day for US internet companies operating in China.  Also at the United Nations Internet Governance Forum in Athens, delegates dumped on Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo, along with a new suspect—Cisco Systems—for facilitating Chinese censorship.

A variety of suggestions were presented to deal with censorship of the internet, mainly involving global regulations governing free speech online.  A French delegate was incensed that free-market principles should take precedence over freedom of expression.  An Irish politician advocated a global ban on internet hate speech.  A Greek cabinet minister expressed unease with libelous materials posted online.  An Iranian delegate cautioned against allowing online free speech to compromise “security”.

In between, the delegates found time to bash Microsoft and Google, who were foolhardy enough to send representatives into that lions’ den.  Google said they’re not as bad as Microsoft.  Microsoft said they’re not “colluding” with the Chinese government, they’re just “doing business”.  A director of the Consumer Project on Technology implied both companies are guilty of hypocrisy.

Sounds about as productive as your typical UN gabfest.

Previous related posts:

• Chinese dissident hammers US internet companies
• Authoritarian states find internet freedom revolting
• Google, Yahoo, Microsoft facilitate Chinese censorship and repression

Chinese dissident Wei Jingsheng says that the Chinese government’s filtering of the internet is not as serious a threat to the people as Western companies’ co-operating with the authorities.

Speaking in Tokyo on Monday, Wei Jingsheng singled out Yahoo for its part in revealing information that helped land a journalist in jail in 2004.

"Let me specify Yahoo," he said at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan. "They will track down internet users and help to sentence them. This really threatens the safety of internet writers in China."

Yahoo does not contest Wei’s account but offers a defence—wait for it—we were only following orders obeying the law.

In its defence, Yahoo said at the time that it was just following local laws in handing over the information.

How pathetic is that.

It gets worse: By spending some of the bucks earned in China on lobbying members of Congress, Yahoo has rounded up some influential defenders.

Microsoft and Google have also recently come under fire for caving to Chinese demands.

Yahoo is not the only company that has come in for criticism for its actions in China. Google and Microsoft were named alongside Yahoo in an Amnesty International report published in July this year as companies that have "in one way or another, facilitated or colluded in the practice of censorship in China".

When ordered by the Chinese government, Microsoft closed down a blog on MSN Spaces and Google created a censored version of its search engine specifically for use in China.

Previous related post: Google, Yahoo, Microsoft facilitate Chinese censorship and repression

UPDATE (31 Oct.): The Great Firewall of China 

Referees tend to favour the home team.  (This analysis focused on English football—“soccer” to North Americans—but I suspect it’s true in other sports as well.)

Researchers looking at the fouls awarded in 2,500 Premier League matches in 1996-97 and 2002-03 found the supposedly impartial men in black favour the home side.

Not only that, refs are especially hard on underdogs.

Worse still for teams considered the underdogs, they are likely to be on the receiving end of some of the poorest decisions — home or away.
. . .
The results, which are to be published in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, also suggested that the number of disciplinary offences was higher in matches between evenly-balanced teams, in crucial end-of-season matches and in matches with high attendance.

The pro-home team bias was found to be present irrespective of the importance of the game or the size of the crowd.  The statistical analysis estimated that, on average, the disadvantage to the visiting team amounted to half a yellow card per game.

A new poll has found that a majority of Canadians believe that provincial marriage commissioners should be permitted to refuse to officiate at a homosexual "marriage" if they have religious objections.

A COMPAS poll conducted last week found 57% of those surveyed said officials who conduct generally secular wedding ceremonies should be allowed to "not officiate at gay marriages," provided there are enough marriage commissioners available for same-sex unions.

A even higher proportion supports the right of clergy to refuse to conduct such ceremonies.

The Conservative government has proposed introducing a defence of religions act that would allow officials to refuse to perform gay marriages, protect the free speech of anti-gay religious leaders and protect organizations that refuse to do business with gays and lesbians.

The COMPAS poll suggested there would be significant public support for such a move, with 72% of those contacted for the survey saying that clergy should have the right not to marry a same-sex couple if it runs counter to their beliefs.

"Those numbers are at the level of overwhelming support," said pollster Conrad Winn, the president of COMPAS. "I mean, you can't get three-quarters of Canadians to agree on the weather."

The poll also found evidence that most Canadians disagree with recent judicial decisions in British Columbia and Ontario that went against religious freedom.

The poll posed a number of hypothetical situations to the 502 people surveyed, asking them if a teacher should be allowed to write a letter to the editor opposing the same-sex law or if a printer should have the right to refuse to print a brochure for a gay group.

In both cases, the respondents to the poll supported those rights, 68% saying the teacher should be allowed to write such a letter and 61% supporting the printer.

BC teacher Chris Kempling was suspended in 2002 by the BC College of Teachers for writing a letter on his own time to a local newspaper criticising acceptance of homosexuality.  The BC Court of Appeals upheld the suspension in 2005.

In 1999, Ontario print-shop owner Scott Brockie was fined by the Ontario Human Rights Commission over his refusal to print materials for a homosexual activist group.  That decision was upheld by the Ontario Court of Appeals in 2004.

Both men are Christians motivated by their religious beliefs.

h/t: Persecuted Church Weblog

Previous related posts:

• Call to civil disobedience over Bill C-38
• What about Chris Kempling?
• Welcome to C-38istan

Nationalist Hindus in India are shocked to discover that the efforts of foreign Christian missionaries are bearing fruit.  They want the missionaries arrested and thrown out of the country.

The ruling party in the southern State of Andhra Pradesh, made up of nationalist Hindus, has accused missionaries coming from Canada and the United States of organizing conversions to Christianity through fraud among local outcastes, and has called for their arrest and deportation.

A party leader levelled the absurd charge that conversions are happening by force.

S.V. Seshagiri Rao, vice-president of the Bharatia Janata Party [BJP, India’s biggest political party of nationalist-Hindu inspiration] made this allegation last week during a press conference in the capital. He said: "Teams of Christian missionaries have fanned out in various tribal areas of Nalgonda district and are forcibly converting tribals to Christianity."

The politician, who addressed the press conference together with the party’s secretary and legal consultant, said the missionaries "promised those who converted free medical treatment, homes, education and 100 rupees per day".

Even if converts were offered material benefits, which is extremely unlikely, that hardly qualifies as force.

The nationalists said that about 6000 have converted in towns and villages of Andhra Pradesh.  They also complained that the police have done nothing and accused the government of indifference to the "problem".

That last statement is understood as a threat that the next step could be vigilante attacks against missionaries and converts.  Fanatical Hindus will not let the matter rest simply because the authorities fail to take action.

h/t: Big News Network.com - Breaking Religious News

Previous related posts:

• Freedom of Religion Act restricts conversion
• Christian conversions present “grave threat to Hindu society”

The Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics, Statistics Canada, today released data on crime victimisation among residents of Canada's three northern territories.  In comparing these data with victimisation statistics in the ten provinces, an interesting paradox emerges.  Residents of the northern territories report a rate of violent crime victimisation almost three times that of those who live in the provinces.  Yet, those same northerners are more likely to say they personally feel safe from crime.

The rate of violent victimization in Canada's territories, based on information provided by Canadians themselves, was almost three times the rate for residents in the rest of the country, according to data from a survey that examined the extent and nature of criminal victimization.
. . .
Almost 4 in every 10 residents of the territories aged 15 and over reported that they were victimized at least once in the 12 months prior to being interviewed. This figure was well above the level of 28% for provincial residents who were victimized over the same time period.
. . .
Northern residents feel safer than those in the rest of Canada

Although northern residents experienced higher levels of violent victimization than did provincial residents, they were more likely to report feeling safe from crime.

In 2004, 54% of northern residents said they were "very satisfied" with their personal safety from crime, compared to 44% of residents in the rest of Canada.

So, are northerners complacent about violent crime or are southerners paranoid?

The full report contains further analysis of spousal violence, including the chart below.  (See page 11 of the pdf document.)

As the chart shows, when the three territories are viewed individually, notable variations appear in the reported prevalence of spousal violence.

(The superscript "E" next to an estimate indicates that the estimate is subject to a relatively wide sampling error and should therefore be used with caution.  At the same time, the sampling error is not so high that Statistics Canada deems the estimate unpublishable, so it's good enough for most general purposes.)

Generally speaking, levels of spousal violence are much higher in previous relationships than in current unions. While this finding holds true for residents of the North, the difference between current and previous partner rates of violence is smaller. In 2004, approximately 20% of northern residents reported having experienced spousal violence by an ex-partner while 9% of residents suffered violence by a current partner. By comparison, 19% of provincial residents reported violence by an ex-spouse and 3% reported violence by a current spouse. [reference omitted]

Note also that no separate analyses of legal marriages and common-law relationships are given.

Statistics Canada also reported some social and demographic characteristics of northerners that may help account for the higher rates of violent crime.

Northern residents tend to be younger on average than residents in the rest of Canada; they have higher proportions of lone-parent families and common-law families; they have higher rates of unemployment and they have higher proportions of Aboriginal residents, compared to the provinces.

On a personal note, I've lived in Whitehorse for 18 years, have never been a victim of violent crime, and have never felt unsafe.  Well, on one or two occasions, I've been worried about bears, but never about people.

Sources:

de Léséleuc, Sylvain, and Jodi-Anne Brzozowski, 2006. Victimization and Offending in Canada's Territories, 2004 and 2005. Statistics Canada catalogue no. 85F0033MIE2006011. http://www.statcan.ca/english/research/85F0033MIE/85F0033MIE2006011.pdf (accessed 30 October).

Statistics Canada, 2006.. "Victimization and offending in the North". The Daily, 30 October. Statistics Canada catalogue no. 11-001-XIE.
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/061030/d061030b.htm (accessed 30 October 2006).

Previous related posts:

• Major gap in Statistics Canada’s violence against women study
• Violent crime more prevalent among aboriginals
• A primer on crime statistics

Julian Fantino has been at his new job as Commissioner of the Ontario Provincial Police for not even three weeks, and he's already worrying about matters that aren't his responsibility.  Is he preparing us for more OPP inaction at Caledonia?

Ontario's highest-ranking police officer said Monday that a contentious native occupation entering its ninth month is beyond his ability to resolve.

Uh, Commissioner Fantino, you weren't hired as a negotiator or mediator but as a law enforcement officer.  You don't have to "resolve" anything; your job is to ensure that the law is obeyed in Ontario.

Newly appointed Ontario Provincial Police Commissioner Julian Fantino said his role in the complex issue is to keep the peace in the town of Caledonia.
. . .
"Our job is to preserve the peace, deal with offences, and bring those who transgress the laws of the land to justice."

So, go and bring transgressors to justice already.  Enforce the court order that's been flouted for months.  Remove the thugs illegally occupying land.

Mr Fantino sounds reluctant about making sure that laws are respected.  If that's the case, why was he chosen to head the provincial police?  Shouldn’t they have hired someone more eager to uphold the rule of law?

h/t: Dust My Broom

Previous related posts:

• Judge perseveres on Caledonia; OPP launches investigation
• Anarchy in Caledonia
• Judge to police and province: Why didn’t you enforce my order?

UPDATE (30 Oct.):  CNEWS has re-written the story and removed the introductory sentence that I quoted above.  Even with the re-write, however, Commissioner Fantino still sounds more interested in tranquillity than in apprehending the law-breakers.

In a recent letter to Karen Kinsley, president and CEO of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge laid into the crown corporation for introducing new mortgage packages that, he said, will stimulate higher housing prices and, therewith, increase the overall inflation rate.

"I read with interest and dismay your press release of June 28 which indicated that CMHC would offer mortgage insurance for interest-only loans and for amortizations of up to 35 years," the two-page letter says.

"Particularly disturbing to me is the rationale you gave that 'these innovative solutions will allow more Canadians to buy homes and to do so sooner.' " The corporation's actions are likely to drive up house prices and make homes less affordable, not more, Mr. Dodge says in the blunt missive, uncharacteristic of the usually tempered language of the central bank.

By stoking inflation with proposed new policies, CMHC is undermining the work of the central bank with "very unhelpful" actions, Mr. Dodge said.

Mr Dodge appears correct in his belief that CMHC's "innovative solutions" will tend to fuel higher housing prices.  The new mortgage offers will enable more Canadians to buy houses, thus increasing housing demand; in the absence of supply increases, that can only drive up selling prices.

The mortgage packages newly offered by CHMC have long been available in the US home-mortgage market.  Late last week, new economic figures were released showing that US housing prices nose-dived almost 10% in September—the largest fall in over 35 years.  Did no-interest mortgages have anything to do with that?

A recent study found that, of Americans who took out home mortgages in 2005, 29% have zero equity in their homes or owe more than their homes are worth.

Dodge’s letter to Kinsley was written 30 June, but only now obtained under the Access to Information Act.