Magic Statistics

Two major Canadian banks have issued new economic forecasts.  The Toronto-Dominion Bank says Ontario’s economy is being dragged down by a deceleration in the US economy.  Ontario, the T-D report suggests, is slowing sharply and could be close to a recession.

The most likely scenario is that Ontario will grow by 1.8 per cent this year and 2.0 per cent next year, the TD forecast states. While those numbers are very low for a province that has traditionally carried the Canadian economy, they mask a steeper slowdown expected during the last half of this year and the first half of next year, Mr. [Derek] Burleton [co-author of the T-D forecast] said.

"It's going to be a difficult ride in the next few quarters."

Ontario has already been struggling for a couple of years as a high Canadian dollar and rising energy costs have undermined its key manufacturing sector.

CIBC [Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce] World Markets also foresees tough times for Ontario, but predicts that the Bank of Canada will step in to ease the burden.

The Bank of Canada will slash interest rates by as much as 100 basis points over the next 12 months to counteract a slowing U.S. economy and past appreciation of the loonie, which could suck another 50,000 manufacturing jobs out of Ontario, an investment bank predicted yesterday.
. . .
"We expect as many as four 25- basis-point cuts over the next 12 months in an effort not only to restrain the loonie but also revive a sagging central economy," Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, said in his 2007 outlook.

By the end of 2007, Canada's overnight rate should have retreated to 3.25%, almost reversing the last year of tightening.

The two banks differ on what that will mean for the economy of Alberta, which has been blasting ahead without a break for many years.  The T-D sees a slowdown, although not as severe as that in Ontario.  The CIBC, on the other hand, sees few, if any ill, effects spilling over from Ontario to the western economic hub.

Previous related posts:

• Alberta’s economy strongest ever in Canadian history
• BC and Alberta to form united economic powerhouse

The very first Anglican Carnival is now up at Miserere Mei, the blog of US Army chaplain Fr Daniel Sparks.  Many thanks for your good work, Daniel.

Any traditional Anglicans with thoughts, reflections, news, or anything interesting they want to share with a wider audience, check out the submission guidelines posted here.

While you're at it, the Anglican Bible and Book Society is also worth a look.

For the first time in decades, Canada has a prime minister who has something important to say at international meetings and, for that reason, is being taken seriously.  Stephen Harper, attending the summit of la Francophonie, argued against a resolution that referred only to the suffering of Lebanon during the recent conflict in the Middle East.  He insisted that the Israeli victims should also be acknowledged.  In the end, the member nations passed an amended resolution unanimously.

"I hope we can all recognize the suffering of humans - men and women - and not just suffering based on people's nationality," Harper said.

"Obviously, Canada believes. . . we should recognize the victims in both Lebanon and Israel."

"I don't think an international organization with the breadth and scope of la Francophonie would want to do anything other than make sure that victims are recognized regardless of their nationality."

In the end, the 72 members of la Francophonie unanimously supported a compromise proposed by the French delegation.

The original resolution was presented at the last minute by Egypt and seconded by Lebanon.  The final resolution was proposed by France.

"In deploring the tragedy in Lebanon and its dramatic consequences for all of the civilian populations," the final resolution stated, "we call for a total cessation of hostilities and a return to calm in Lebanon."

I have a question: Why is Egypt a member of la Francophonie?  The armies of Islam conquered Egypt in the 7th century, bringing with them the Arabic language, still Egypt’s one and only official language.  Under Napoleon, France occupied Egypt in 1798, but the British turfed ‘em out in 1801.  So, how did Egypt get into la Francophonie?  How many Egyptians speak French?

Be that as it may, good for Stephen Harper.  We all know what would have happened if Paul Martin had been sitting in Canada’s chair: Not a peep would have been heard about Israel.  It’s good to have a prime minister with some moral vision and clarity about world affairs.

Previous related post: PM’s pro-Israel stand will cost votes—or not

Archbishop Terence Finlay, the retired bishop of the Anglican diocese of Toronto and metropolitan (senior bishop) of Ontario, has apparently been reprimanded after it emerged that he officiated at a ceremony of marriage between two lesbians last summer.  The ceremony took place at a United Church in Toronto.

I say "apparently" because the reprimand issued by Diocesan Bishop of Toronto Colin Johnson does not mention Abp Finlay by name.

In a memo issued Sept. 1 to clergy of the diocese and obtained by the Journal, Bishop Johnson did not name Archbishop Finlay as the cleric who presided at a same-sex marriage during the summer. He stated that he had "reprimanded him in writing, admonished him not to do so again, and suspended his licence to officiate at marriages until the end of 2006." The act of presiding at a same-sex marriage breached Canon XXI of General Synod, On Marriage in the Church, wrote Bishop Johnson. "Same-sex marriages are not authorized at this time in the diocese of Toronto and I do not condone diocesan clergy officiating at such marriages, whether in the Anglican church or elsewhere."

When asked by Anglican Journal, Abp Finlay admitted that he performed such a ceremony.

"Yes, I did participate in a marriage of two dear friends who happen to be gay. One of whom, I have known for many, many years," said Archbishop Finlay, when asked by the Anglican Journal to confirm reports about his involvement in the ceremony that took place over the summer. . . . It was out of a "long journey of love, friendship, support and familial relationship with this particular person and her partner" that Archbishop Finlay said he "came to the conclusion that their love for one another was part of God's divine love and it was appropriate that that be deeply blessed."

From one angle, this sounds rather mysterious.  One might think it almost fortuitous that ordinary Anglican pew-warmers heard out about it at all.  Bp Johnson's memo that pointedly omitted names was signed almost a month ago, and Abp Finlay was asked about his role only after "reports" came to the ear of an Anglican Journal reporter.

At the same time, a canon violation committed in a public ceremony would be impossible to keep secret for any length of time.

So, then, why all this dissembling?  If Abp Finlay really thought he was doing the right thing when he violated Canon XXI, why didn't he have the courage of his convictions to say so at the time?  Keeping quiet and hoping it will never come out only encourages rumours and gossip (or, as the reporter puts it, "reports") in the church.

Previous related post: Anglican Church of Canada finally confronting losses

UPDATE (1 Oct.): Binky is not surprised by these latest shenanigans in the Diocese of Toronto. Here's the back story.

Just because classical music aficionados tend to be concentrated among geezers senior citizens doesn't mean they're still listening to scratchy old vinyl albums.  Au contraire!

The classical music magazine Gramophone has branded its readers "iPod oldies" after discovering that 75 per cent of them, even the over-50s, say that they listen to music using 21st century media - MP3 players, iPods, PCs and digital television and radio.

Across all age groups, a readers' survey found that one in five download classical music legally from the internet, one in five actively preferred to listen on their MP3 or other digital music player and 57 per cent have "ripped" or converted to digital format part of their CD collection.

The findings, says James Jolly, the magazine's editor-in-chief, give the lie to the myth that lovers of serious music still pine for The Third Programme (as Radio 3 was once called) and vinyl.

"We can see a whole new group of mature MP3 listeners — iPod oldies perhaps — emerging who are far from old in their outlook."

Let's see:  I'm over 50, and I have an iPod, and I listen to MP3s—classical and otherwise.  But "mature"?  That's a stretch.

Canada's fertility rate has been below replacement level for several decades, and so the number of young Canadians is now decreasing while the population of elderly is growing rapidly.  Statistics Canada projects that, by 2030, the number of deaths will exceed the number of births.  If present trends continue, in about ten years there will be more Canadians over 65 than under 15—a circumstance unprecedented in our history.

Historian Ian Dowbiggin of the University of Prince Edward Island believes the aging population is just as serious a social issue as global warming.

"Many experts predict that aging national populations will boost support for the rationing of health care resources and the legalization of euthanasia, either in the form of physician-assisted suicide or voluntary lethal injection," said Mr. Dowbiggin, who is writing Where Have All the Babies Gone, a book exploring the causes and impact of declining birth rates in the world.

Mr. Dowbiggin said Canadians are only slowly waking up to the policy implications of a birth rate of only 1.5 children for each woman on everything from health care and education to immigration and taxation. Like the debate about how to deal with climate change, however, it is picking up steam, he said.

In addition to establishing financial incentives for families to have more children, Dr Dowbiggin recommends that governments terminate all support for family planning groups because they have contributed to a social environment that discourages child-bearing.

International survey data show that Canadian women are not having as many children as they would like.

h/t: Bourque

Previous related posts:

• Canada's fertility deficit
• Canadian population rapidly aging

Last July, San Joaquin Bishop John-David Schofield was charged with abandonment of communion.  (Background here.)  The committee to which the matter was referred has unanimously decided to exonerate Bp Schofield.  Praise the Lord!

Responding to a unanimous opinion of the Title IV Review Committee, Presiding Bishop Frank Griswold on September 28 notified San Joaquin Bishop John-David Schofield of the committee's finding that actions of Schofield "do not constitute abandonment" of communion as defined by the Canons of the Episcopal Church.

The Episcopal Church's Title IV Review Committee met via conference call September 26 to deal with accusations that Schofield had abandoned the communion of the Episcopal Church. The charges had been filed by four California bishops.

No comment was immediately available from Bp Schofield or from any of the four bishops who initiated the charge: J. Jon Bruno of Los Angeles, Jerry A. Lamb of Northern California, James R. Mathes of San Diego, and William E. Swing of California.

h/t: Brad Drell, who launched an online petition in support of Bp Schofield.

Previous related posts:

• Episcopal Bishop of L.A. gets trounced
• Move to depose orthodox Episcopal bishop

As recently as 1966, Canada's total fertility rate (TFR) was above that of the United States.  At that time, both countries had TFRs well above 2.1, the level needed to replace the population.  (The TFR is the number of children each woman would bear during her lifetime, on average given current fertility patterns.)  Since then, however, Canada's TFR has tumbled to 1.5 or below, while the birth rate in the United States, although it has also declined, is near replacement level.

In 2001, Statistics Canada produced an in-depth report on demographic trends in Canada and the US, focusing on the divergent fertility trends in the two countries.

The gap between the two countries, amounting to approximately one-half child per woman in favour of the United States, amounts to what could be called, in practical terms, Canada’s fertility deficit.

Demographic experts in Canada see no reason to believe that the average fertility of Canadian women will rise significantly within the next several decades; but American demographers foresee a probable increase in the US TFR to around 2.20 by mid-century.

As Figure 1, above, shows, fertility rose sharply in both the US and Canada in the immediate post-war period, as it did in many Western countries.  The baby boom reached its height in 1957, when the TFR reached 3.91 children per woman in Canada and 3.77 in the US.  Fertility then declined steadily, falling below replacement level in the early 1970s.  In the early 1980s, the American birth rate began to recover lost ground; in Canada, however, the decline continued.

Can the different fertility trends in the two countries be explained by differences in the racial-ethnic composition of the populations?  Birth rates have historically been higher among black and Hispanic groups, and they form a growing proportion of the American population.  Figure 2, below, shows that this hypothesis can explain only a part of Canada's fertility deficit.

The fertility of black American women rose during the late 1980s and then declined in the late 1990s, whereas fertility of white women rose slowly but steadily throughout the period.  By the end of the 1990s, fertility among white American women was closer to that of black Americans than to Canadian women.

Improved data collection beginning in 1989 has made it possible to separate Hispanic women from other white women in the US.  Thus, Figure 2 shows that all American racial-ethnic groups experience much higher fertility than do Canadian women.

For 1999, a gap of 0.3 children is observed between the TFR of Canadian women and that of non-Hispanic white American women (1.85 children per woman), the group exhibiting the lowest fertility rate in the United States. Therefore, the ethnic make-up of the U.S. population does not entirely explain the differences in fertility observed between the two countries. At most, the higher fertility of black or Hispanic American women would appear to explain 40% of the difference observed in 1999. [footnote omitted]

By examining fertility rates of particular age groups, the researchers found that the difference in overall TFR is concentrated among younger women.  About 30% of the difference can be attributed to lower fertility among Canadians aged 15-19, and another 60% to women aged 20 to 29.

Is fertility lower in Canada because Canadian women do not want to have as many children as American women do?  Survey data are available to shed light on that question.  Woman in many countries are periodically surveyed about how many children they want or intend to have.  The findings show that Canadian and American women intend to have approximately the same number of children.

Canadian women of childbearing age (15 to 44 years of age) reported intending to have an average of 2.22 children, a number entirely comparable to that reported by American women (2.19 children)

Differing intentions regarding overall number of children therefore do not explain the fertility discrepancy.  On average, then, American women achieve their desired number of children, whereas Canadian women do not.

(The study also mentions that, among all the countries that have gathered data on intentions to have children, Canada has one of the largest gaps between intentions and actual number of children.)

The researchers looked at several other factors potentially affecting fertility, including contraception, abortion, marriage and cohabitation, labour market conditions, and economic policies vis-à-vis the family.  None of these wholly accounts for Canada's fertility deficit, but a combination of factors may explain a good deal.

Favoured by earlier marriage, a greater propensity for legal marriage (which is more stable and more fertile than common-law union, an option that is more popular with Canadians), and easier entry into the labour market, in particular for young males, young American women aged 20 to 29 have more children than young Canadian women of the same age.

The Statistics Canada study was published in 2001, based on data for the period ending 1999, but was only made available for free online earlier this week.  More recent data show that, in 2004, Canada's TFR was 1.53 and that of the United States was 2.05—both about where they were in 1999.

Source:

Belanger, Alain, and Genevieve Ouellet, 2001. "A comparative study of recent trends in Canadian and American fertility, 1980-1999". Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada, 2001. Statistics Canada catalogue no. 91-209-XIE2001000, pp. 107-136 (pp. 121-150 of pdf document).
http://www.statcan.ca/english/freepub/91-209-XIE/91-209-XIE2001000.pdf (accessed 25 September 2006)

Statistics Canada earlier this week made available online at no charge back issues of its annual publication, "Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada" for the years 1995 through 2002.  They can be accessed here.

Previous related posts:

• Canada's fertility rate still below replacement
• Canadian population rapidly aging

The collect for today, the day of Saint Michael and All Angels, from the 1662 Book of Common Prayer:

O everlasting God, who hast ordained and constituted the services of Angels and men in a wonderful order: Mercifully grant, that as thy holy Angels alway do thee service in heaven, so by thy appointment they may succour and defend us on earth; through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen.

For the Epistle: Revelation 12:7-12
The Gospel: St Matthew 18:1-10

More on St Michael here.