Magic Statistics

“I accept no responsibility for statistics, which are a form of magic beyond my comprehension.” — Robertson Davies

July 11th, 2006 at 7:13 pm

Fundamentalist Mormon convicted of underage sex

The first trial of eight polygamists accused of sexual relations with underage girls has ended in a conviction.  The eight are all members of a Fundamentalist Church of Latter Day Saints (FLDS) group near Colorado City, Arizona, headed by Warren Jeffs.

An eight-member jury unanimously agreed on Friday that Kelly Fischer is guilty on both charges of sexual conduct with a minor and conspiracy to commit sexual conduct with a minor. Fischer is the first convicted of eight Colorado City men charged with similar crimes.

Following closing arguments by both attorneys Friday morning, Mohave County Superior Court Judge Steven Conn sent the jury to deliberate at 1:05 p.m. The jury received 13 pages of instructions and copies of evidence.

Shortly before 2:30 p.m., jury members concluded that Fischer was guilty on both charges. Asked by Conn to reconfirm their decisions in the courtroom one by one, all of them said "yes" to the decision they had just made.

A unanimous verdict took less than ninety minutes, even though the DA thought this one of the weakest of the eight cases.

Mohave County Attorney Matt Smith said the Fischer case was one of the weakest cases of eight similar cases he will try in court, because the victim did not testify at the trial.

Smith said several of the other codefendants may be easier cases to try because the victims will come forth to testify in those trials.

It took over three years to bring the cases to trial because all the authorities had to go on at the outset was a bunch of birth certificates showing that underage girls were giving birth to babies fathered by much older men.  But then Warren Jeffs started ejecting men he deemed unworthy, thus creating enemies willing to testify against him and his friends.

Some say more than 200 men have been exiled. Of those, only a handful have spoken out about the restrictive authority Jeffs wields over his followers.

Among them: Richard Holm and Isaac Wyler, whose testimony proved key last week in winning a conviction against Kelly Fischer on two sex-crimes charges related to his "spiritual" polygamous marriage to a 16-year-old girl.

In the end, however, the jury found the birth certificates conclusive.

Debbie Henderson, foreman of the jury, . . . said it was not really hard for them to find the defendant guilty. She said birth certificates offered by the state on Fischer, victim Jenny Steed and her child made it clear to the jury that Fischer had had sex with her before she was 18 years old.

This trial is part of campaigns by Arizona and Utah against the FLDS.

Arizona has taken the lead in pursuing criminal charges against members of the sect, while Utah has pursued civil action that might end up dismantling the faith's communal property trust.

The successful prosecution might provide a blueprint for pursuing the same charges against the other men - as well as Jeffs, if he is ever apprehended. Jeffs also faces a rape-as-an-accomplice charge in Utah over the arrangement of an underage marriage.

The 50-year-old leader, whom his followers consider a prophet, has not been seen publicly in more than 18 months and is on the FBI's "Ten Most Wanted Fugitives" list.

None of the three news stories quoted here mentions that Mr Jeffs is also a leader of the FLDS colony in Bountiful, BC.  Canadian police have failed to move against the Bountiful group, apparently because they fear that Canada’s laws against polygamy could be overturned on constitutional grounds.  So, the safest place for Mr Jeffs to hide right now is Canada.

Now that Arizona FLDS members have been successfully prosecuted for sex with minors—and that on the basis of a simple examination of birth records—why don’t BC authorities explore the same strategy to protect young girls from abusive relationships?  Or do BC law enforcement agencies not care as much as their American counterparts about exploited underage girls?

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July 11th, 2006 at 6:19 pm

New Brunswick caps retail gasoline prices with predictable results

Motorists are being turned away from at least two dozen gas stations in northern New Brunswick because the owners can't make a profit at the maximum allowable price set by the provincial government.  Indications are that another hundred gas stations are on the verge of following suit.

Kevin McCann of Wilson Fuels said at least 120 independent gas retailers in total across the province would shut off their pumps this morning, claiming they are losing money.

Independent retailers operating under the Ultramar, PetroCan, Shell, Esso and Wilson banners are taking part in the protest against the province's regulation system, said Mr. McCann, the New Brunswick sales manager for Wilson Fuels.
. . .
Mr. McCann said it appears the province's Conservative government rushed to get regulation in place without fully understanding its impact.

Mr McCann's last comment is overly generous, I think, in view of this rejoinder from the province's energy minister.

Energy Minister Brenda Fowlie defended the regulated system, saying any problem with profit margins stems from their supply contracts.

Actually, that's incorrect: the "problem" with profit margins stems from foolish and arrogant government bureaucrats who think they can control prices of essential commodities, despite millennia of consistent failure.

"We recognize that there are some difficulties between the wholesalers and the retailers and that these are private contracts that they need to work out with their wholesalers," Ms. Fowlie said.

In what sense are these contracts still "private" if the government is now dictating the maximum selling price of the good whose terms of supply the parties are negotiating?

Reality check for the government of New Brunswick: Almost all gasoline distributors and retailers are independent small-business operations without ownership connection to the big corporations that extract oil and manufacture gasoline.  Gasoline distribution and retailing are typically highly competitive industries that run on very small profit margins.  They just sell the stuff; they don't make it.

A CBC report adds this solipsistic zinger from Ms Fowlie:

She maintains regulation is working.

She notes that in her hometown of Quispamsis, gas is being sold below the regulated maximum of $1.12 per litre. "The majority of the stations are selling at $1.114. That's a whole penny below the regulated market without any transportation costs built in."

Because she can (for the moment) buy gas in her town, everything's fine.  No problem.  Nothing to see here; just move along now.  Watch how quickly she changes her tune when her local retailer shuts down.

And by all means let's continue to ignore the elephant in the room: The biggest gasoline profiteer by far is government.  The federal Department of Finance informs us that the province of New Brunswick pockets 14.5 cents in excise tax per litre sold, plus provincial sales tax of 7.3% of the pump price.  Yet the energy minister feels duty-bound to prevent independent gasoline outlets from earning even 2% profit.  Hypocrisy, anyone?

CBC link via Fighting for Taxpayers.

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July 11th, 2006 at 6:47 am

Statistics advertising slogans

Another great time-waster: Advertising Slogan Generator.  Type in the name of the product (or whatever) you want advertising slogans for, hit "Sloganize", and away you go.  Here are some results for "statistics".

My favourite:

  • Crunch All You Want. We'll Make Statistics.

Runners-up:

  • Time To Make The Statistics. [That slogan would be perfect with the word “up” inserted after “make”.]
  • Get Statistics or Get Out.
  • I Scream, You Scream, We All Scream for Statistics.

Other choice slogans:

  • Behold the Power of Statistics.
  • Make Fun of Statistics.  [I do that every day at the office.]
  • Did Somebody Say Statistics?
  • Great Statistics. Great Times.
  • The Statistics Of Paradise.
  • Get the Statistics Habit.
  • I'm Only Here For The Statistics.
  • Better Living Through Statistics.
  • If You've Got the Time, We've Got the Statistics.
  • The Joy of Statistics.

The slogan generator has an issue with plural nouns:

  • Got a Statistics? You're in Luck.
  • Change Your Whole Statistics.
  • A Statistics Works Wonders.
  • You Need A Statistics.

Think any of those slogans would help sell some statistics?

via Siris.

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