Magic Statistics

“I accept no responsibility for statistics, which are a form of magic beyond my comprehension.” — Robertson Davies

June 15th, 2006 at 9:01 pm

Mothers: Stash those kids in daycare and get back to work

That’s the spin of the Globe and Mail’s news story on this morning’s Statistics Canada release of a study on women in the Canadian labour force.  A comparison of the Globe’s account and the Statistics Canada report makes the newspaper’s pro-daycare bias apparent.

After rising rapidly after World War II, the rate at which Canadian women participate in the paid labour force has grown more slowly in recent years.  The slowdown has been centred in Western Canada; but in the East, especially in Quebec, the labour force participation rate (LFPR) of women has continued to move up briskly.  This is most apparent among mothers of children aged five or less.  In Alberta, the LFPR of women with young children has actually declined since 1999, while in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces, mothers in the same situation have increased their involvement in the paid labour force.

Statistics Canada focuses on possible reasons for that divergence.

The increase in participation rates in the East appears associated with the greater use of day care and higher education levels in Quebec, lower birth rates in the Atlantic provinces, and also with age, types of jobs created and an overall lower proportion of immigrants in the East than in the West.
. . .
If the participation rate of women with young children in Alberta and British Columbia had risen in tandem with Quebec, 30,000 more women would be in their labour forces in 2005.
. . .
In 1992, the Prairies ranked first in the participation rate of women with children less than six years of age, while Quebec was last. In 2005, Quebec came first and the Prairies last. British Columbia had the second lowest participation rate, while the Atlantic provinces had the second highest.

The Prairies have the highest birth rate in the country. In particular, Alberta women may have left the labour force to look after their children full time since it is the only province where the number of children aged 0 to 5 increased after 1999. But, while it had more infants, Alberta has the smallest share of children in day care.

Mothers in the labour force in Quebec multiplied rapidly after its $5 a day universal care system was introduced in 1997. Between 2001 and 2004, about 60% of all day care spaces added in Canada were in Quebec, which now has 43% of all children registered in day care. In 2003, the share of children in Quebec's day care almost doubled the national average.

So, how did the Globe report those facts?

If mothers of young children in Alberta and British Columbia had kept up with Quebec, there would be 30,000 women in the work force there — at a time when employers complain frequently of labour shortages.
. . .
[Francine Roy, author of the Statistics Canada study] points to availability of daycare. Alberta has the smallest share of children in daycare — 43 per cent, Statscan said. Indeed, daycare capacity has actually fallen over the past decade, and now the province has fewer than 48,000 spots for 163,400 mothers of pre-schoolers.

Meanwhile, Quebec has radically improved the availability and affordability of daycare, at the same time as more women have become more educated, Statscan said. As a result, young Québécois mothers are now participating in the workforce at rates well above the national average.

Statistics Canada says “If the participation rate of women with young children in Alberta and British Columbia had risen in tandem with Quebec”, and the Globe and Mail says “If mothers of young children in Alberta and British Columbia had kept up with Quebec”.  The Globe thinks Quebec’s higher LFPR is something that Western mothers need to “keep up with”.

Referring to mothers of young children putting their kids in daycare, Statistics Canada says Alberta has the “smallest share of children in day care” and reports the bare facts of Quebec’s daycare expansion but, according to the Globe, Statistics Canada “points to availability of daycare” and also mentions that Alberta’s “daycare capacity has indeed fallen”.  Those are important changes, I think.  The words “availability” and “capacity” emphasise the supply side of the equation and imply that, in contrast to Quebec’s universal daycare program, Alberta is providing insufficient daycare places to meet the demand.

In a free-market economy such as Canada’s, provision of daycare is a business that is cheap and easy to set up.  If the number of daycare places is declining in Alberta, my initial assumption would be that’s happening because it’s not a profitable business—i.e., there is insufficient demand to make it worthwhile to open up new daycares, or even keep open the ones that are already there.  If daycare is declining, in the absence of unreasonable barriers to entry, it must be because fewer Alberta parents want their kids cared for by strangers outside the home.

In view of these elementary economic principles, the Globe’s implication that Alberta has an “availability” or “capacity” problem in daycare is problematic and, in my view, misleading.  Contrast that with Statistics Canada’s neutral language about “use” of daycare and “share” of children in daycare.

The Globe’s statement, “Quebec has radically improved the availability and affordability of daycare”, made me cringe.  In the face of mounting evidence that putting young children in daycare has adverse effects on both them and their parents, to imply that Quebec’s universal daycare program has “improved” anything is perverse.

Statistics Canada’s summary report is posted here and the full (pdf) report here.

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June 15th, 2006 at 7:05 pm

Just another day on a Canadian university campus

Against her better judgment, Margaret Wente joined a symposium panel at the University of Toronto to discuss the recent arrests of 17 Canadian-resident Muslims on terrorism charges.  The discussion among the six panelists, including at least two Muslims, seemed to go well enough.  All agreed that the problem stems not from anything directly related to Canada or even multiculturalism per se, but rather from the world-wide Islamic extremist movement. Also, suggestions of a broad anti-Muslim "backlash" among Canadians found no support among the panelists.

But question period was a whole 'nother story.  It sounds like good ol' U of T is full of raving zealots.  One questioner attacked the panelists for not mentioning his pet cause, the aboriginal blockade at Caledonia.  He apparently wasn't paying attention when the panel's mandate was announced.  Then there was the Muslim student who is positive she's a victim of backlash.  And how does she know this?

Her evidence was that she felt people were looking at her because she was a Muslim.

A mind like a steel trap, that one.  She wouldn't be a psychology major by any chance?

To top it all off, a U of T professor played the overbearing self-righteous champion of victims anonymous.

But the best was yet to come, in the person of Rinaldo Walcott, who holds a Canada Research Chair in Social Justice and Cultural Studies. With his tight T-shirt and long black dreds, he made for an impressive sight. He denounced the entire proceedings as a racist exercise in colonialist discourse that objectified the "other" (or something like that), and he denounced me in particular as a monger of hate speech. Then he stalked dramatically from the room. (Big applause.) So much for free and open debate on campus.

It's good to see a college professor so committed to public dialogue on issues he's so close-minded passionate about.

For access to Ms Wente's full column, click here.

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June 15th, 2006 at 5:40 pm

Man bites parking cop

On 1 June, Japan introduced a stringent Road Traffic Law designed to curb (sorry, I couldn't resist) the country's anarchic drivers who insist on parking anywhere they like with impunity.  Parking laws were on the books previously, but ignored so routinely and for so long that they may as well not have existed.  The new law's zero-tolerance policy toward illegal parking came with real muscle: tow trucks, wheel clamps, and 1600 well-trained parking wardens, each equipped with a digital camera, a laptop computer, and GPS software to direct tow trucks to the crime scenes.

It took only a week for a motorist to be charged with assaulting a parking patroller.  Now, just two weeks into Japan's new parking regime, comes news that an irate motorist has been arrested for biting one.

A man who bit a parking inspector who warned him against illegally parking his car has been arrested for obstructing a public officer from performing his official duties, police said. Masashi Wakita, 55, a resident of Okayama who claims to be a notary public, is the second person to be arrested for attacking parking inspectors under the revised Road Traffic Law. "I became furious after the inspector warned me against parking illegally," he was quoted as telling investigators.

Furious after getting a warning?  What would he have done if he'd actually received a ticket?  Those parking wardens may need bullet-proof vests.  And I thought the stereotypical Japanese was a respectful and compliant person.

As Leo Lewis, Japan correspondent for The Times of London, puts it, "It’s Lord of the Flies stuff".

FWIW, the Road Traffic Law appears to have improved driving conditions.  Keeping the roads clear of illegally parked vehicles has reportedly produced a huge drop in Tokyo traffic jams.

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June 15th, 2006 at 5:22 pm

Arrested UK man linked to alleged Canadian terrorists

In stark contrast to the BBC and The Guardian, Canada's National Post carries a lengthy report on Aabid Hussain Khan, the 21-year-old British Muslim charged yesterday with conspiracy to murder under Britain's Terrorism Act 2000.  Mr Khan is believed to have communicated with some of those arrested in Toronto earlier this month about their alleged terrorist plot.

The National Post has learned that Mr. Khan is alleged to have participated in a password-protected jihadist Internet forum also used by several other terror suspects, including some of the 17 arrested in Toronto on June 2.

In his online postings, he defended Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, a Pakistan militant group linked to the Taliban and al-Qaeda that Canada blames for terrorist attacks in the disputed mountain region of Kashmir.

A resident of Bradford, West Yorkshire, Mr. Khan visited Canada last year, but his family said he only came to meet a prospective bride. His lawyer, Javid Arshad, has denied Mr. Khan has any involvement in terrorism.
. . .
A 16-year-old was also charged with murder conspiracy, and police are still looking for a third man, who has been missing since police began their searches. Local media have identified him as Mr. Khan's close friend, Sultan Mohammed, 20.

"This is a serious and complex investigation," West Yorkshire police said in a statement. "Enquiries are expected to continue into various aspects of the investigation for some time."

Lashkar-e-Tayyiba was outlawed in Canada in 2003 under our Anti-terrorism Act.

The Post article goes on to describe the outraged reaction of Bradford Muslims to the police raids on the homes of Mr Khan's parents, extended family, and friends.

The overwhelming assumption here is that the police have overreacted, detained two innocents, and vilified an entire neighbourhood and, by extension, a religion.

Ya lost me there.  How is an entire neighbourhood and a religion "vilified" by police raids in search of individuals suspected of abetting an international conspiracy planning attacks on a foreign nation's government?  As a Canadian citizen, I am grateful that police in the UK are giving their full co-operation in seeking anyone implicated in a plot against my country.

As for whether they're "two innocents", I guess we'll just have to wait and see what transpires in court.

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