Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe thinks Environment Minister Rona Ambrose said something funny in the House of Commons:

"She looks like she's participating in the [Montreal comedy] festival Just for Laughs."

What was so funny?

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe said he is particularly upset by Ms. Ambrose's claims over the past week that meeting the Kyoto targets would require taking all planes, buses and trains out of operation.

Canada’s Minister of the Environment said that?  Where did that come from?  Her address to the House last Thursday, where she referred to the release of 2004 data from Canada’s National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory.

In 2004, our emissions were 195 Mt above our Kyoto target. How much is 195 Mt?  It’s the equivalent of more than all our transportation emissions – i.e., all the emissions from every car, truck, plane and train in Canada.  We would have to pull every truck and car off the street, shut down every train and ground every plane to reach the Kyoto target negotiated by the Liberals.

Or we could shut all the lights off in Canada tomorrow – but that still wouldn’t be enough – to reach our Kyoto target we’d have to shut off all the lights AND shut down the entire agriculture industry.

Canada's GHG emissions, 1990-2004That’s the claim that tickled Mr Duceppe’s funny bone.  I hate to be a wet blanket, but I doubt he would find that so amusing if he did a little arithmetic.

The line chart at right comes from last week’s release of new data from the National GHG Inventory.  Canada emitted 758 Mt (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) of GHG in 2004.  The horizontal line on the chart shows our 1990 emissions of 599 Mt.  The 2004 emissions level is almost 27 percent above the 1990 amount and almost 35 percent above the target set by the Kyoto Protocol.  The previous Liberal government negotiated Canada’s participation in the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and committed Canada to reach its target by 2008.

Canada's 2004 GHG emissions by sourceThe pie chart at left, from the same release, shows a breakdown of Canada’s 2004 GHG emission by source.  Road transportation accounted for 145 Mt (19 percent of the total); electricity generation, 130 Mt (17%); agriculture, 55 Mt (7%).

Since our Kyoto target is 563 Mt, Canada would have to reduce GHG emissions to a level 195 Mt  below 2004 emissions.  The pie chart shows that required reduction is well above total emissions from road transportation, and is also more than the total of electricity generation and agriculture.  So, Ms Ambrose is indeed correct in her illustrative examples of what Kyoto demands of Canadians.

Sorry, Gilles, but the joke’s on you.

Mr Duceppe made his innumerate comment in the context of a motion, introduced by the Bloc and supported the NDP and the Liberals, intended to “force” the Conservative government to meet the Kyoto target.  The motion calls on Ottawa to set forth a Kyoto implementation plan by 15 October.

Liberal support for this motion is a travesty: the Liberals signed on to Kyoto in 1997 and had almost eight years to formulate an implementation plan and failed miserably.  Now they demand that the Conservatives get one in place within five months.

A good look at the line chart above will make it plain that Canada’s Kyoto target is not going to be met.  Ms Ambrose, in arguing for an alternative approach to climate change, is simply recognizing reality—and being honest about it.  The Liberals, by contrast, dissembled for years about Canada’s inability to comply with Kyoto.  Apparently, Mr Duceppe was happier with that approach.

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