Magic Statistics

“I accept no responsibility for statistics, which are a form of magic beyond my comprehension.” — Robertson Davies

May 16th, 2006 at 9:55 pm

Polar bears are “vulnerable”. No, wait, I take that back.

The World Conservation Union (IUCN) released its 2006 Red List of Threatened Species earlier this month.  Here are the opening sentences of the 2 May press release:

The number of known threatened species reaches 16,119. The ranks of those facing extinction are joined by familiar species like the polar bear, hippopotamus and desert gazelles; together with ocean sharks, freshwater fish and Mediterranean flowers.

Polar bears "facing extinction"?  Whoah!  That brought strong reaction from some polar bear experts.  Inuit leader Jose Kusugak was personally offended and dismissed the report.

A national Inuit leader says his people were blindsided by an international organization's decision to give polar bears a higher profile on its endangered species list.

Jose Kusugak says the World Conservation Union's upgrading of the status of polar bears to "vulnerable" on its red list of species in danger is "unfair."

The Union, which describes itself as the world's largest conservation network, heightened its listing of the bear because of the threat to its habitat due to climate change.
. . .
But Kusugak, the head of the Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, says they weren't consulted or warned about the change in status.

He says the decision is not based on facts.

"It feels really bad and you can probably imagine how we felt when that kind of decision actually affects Inuit in Canada," said Kusugak. "And it seems very unfair that they're going from a scientific-base kind of study to fortune telling or forecasting of what's going to happen to the polar bear."

Mr Kusugak has requested an urgent meeting with Environment Minister Rona Ambrose to ensure that Inuit hunting rights are not impaired by the IUCN report.

Several Inuit organisations “denounced” the report.

A third Inuit organization has denounced a recent decision by the World Conservation Union to give polar bears a higher protection profile.

"Nunavut Tunngavik Inc. opposes the World Conservation Union's decision to list polar bears as a vulnerable species on their red list." Raymond Ningneocheak, NTI's second vice-president, said on Friday.

Earlier this month, the union downgraded the status of polar bears to "vulnerable," saying climate change could see the species drastically decline in the next half-century.

The move was condemned last week by the Inuit Tapariit Kanatami and the Inuit Circumpolar Conference.
. . .
Ningneocheak's comments highlight a growing rift between Inuit and conservation groups.

Dr Mitch Taylor, polar bear biologist with the Government of Nunavut, ridiculed claims that the polar bear is endangered.

Polar bears are becoming the poster-species for "doomsday prophets" of climate change, even though groups pushing for higher protection for the animals don't have the evidence to prove their case, Nunavut's manager of wildlife says.
. . .
"At present, the polar bear is one of the best-managed of the large Arctic mammals," Taylor said. "If all the Arctic nations continue to abide by the terms and intent of the Polar Bear Agreement, the future of polar bears is secure."

Taylor noted the estimated number of bears on the Boothia Peninsula, 1,300 kilometres west of Iqaluit, has actually increased to 1,500 animals from 900. He said environmental groups don't seem to want to take information like that into consideration when pressing their case.

IUCN got well and truly trounced by local experts.  How did the IUCN take it?  We’re misunderstood, its spokesman claims.

Canada's Inuit people may have misunderstood the intent of listing the polar bear as "vulnerable," says a spokesperson for the World Conservation Union.

An official with the international conservation organization says it's surprised by the reaction it's received in Canada's North to its upgrading of polar bears on its red list earlier this month.
. . .
But Craig Hilton-Taylor of the World Conservation Union, says the Inuit organizations may have misunderstood what the listing is all about.

"All we're doing is looking at the possibility of extinction of the species, we're not saying this is a high priority for conservation action and that you must do X, Y and Z," he said.

"It's just an alert being put out there saying the species is potentially threatened, here's the problem, and then it's up to them to have the right discussions and dialogues with the people concerned, then decide what action, if any, is required."

Hilton-Taylor says it's clear climate change will affect the Arctic and the polar bear's habitat and population to some extent.

"It's a precautionary listing, it's anticipating what's going to happen in 40 years' time. It may be wrong," he said.

Mr Hilton-Taylor just contradicted his own organisation’s report.  Check this from the footnotes:

The IUCN Red List threat categories are the following, in descending order of threat:
  • Extinct or Extinct in the Wild;
  • Critically Endangered, Endangered and Vulnerable: species threatened with global extinction;
  • Near Threatened: species close to the threatened thresholds or that would be threatened without ongoing specific conservation measures;

The IUCN classified polar bears as “vulnerable”, i.e., “threatened with global extinction”.  That’s a definite statement, not "potentially threatened" nor a “precautionary listing”.

Mr Hilton-Taylor lets slip the IUCN’s bigger agenda:

"There's a possibility that it might not go down as far as we think it will go down, which would be good news. But it's much better to put out that warning now to try and get governments to do something about what's happening to the global climate."

It’s not about preserving individual species as such; it’s about getting governments to climb on board the climate change bandwagon.

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May 16th, 2006 at 8:59 pm

Spot the comedian

Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe thinks Environment Minister Rona Ambrose said something funny in the House of Commons:

"She looks like she's participating in the [Montreal comedy] festival Just for Laughs."

What was so funny?

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe said he is particularly upset by Ms. Ambrose's claims over the past week that meeting the Kyoto targets would require taking all planes, buses and trains out of operation.

Canada’s Minister of the Environment said that?  Where did that come from?  Her address to the House last Thursday, where she referred to the release of 2004 data from Canada’s National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory.

In 2004, our emissions were 195 Mt above our Kyoto target. How much is 195 Mt?  It’s the equivalent of more than all our transportation emissions – i.e., all the emissions from every car, truck, plane and train in Canada.  We would have to pull every truck and car off the street, shut down every train and ground every plane to reach the Kyoto target negotiated by the Liberals.

Or we could shut all the lights off in Canada tomorrow – but that still wouldn’t be enough – to reach our Kyoto target we’d have to shut off all the lights AND shut down the entire agriculture industry.

Canada's GHG emissions, 1990-2004That’s the claim that tickled Mr Duceppe’s funny bone.  I hate to be a wet blanket, but I doubt he would find that so amusing if he did a little arithmetic.

The line chart at right comes from last week’s release of new data from the National GHG Inventory.  Canada emitted 758 Mt (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) of GHG in 2004.  The horizontal line on the chart shows our 1990 emissions of 599 Mt.  The 2004 emissions level is almost 27 percent above the 1990 amount and almost 35 percent above the target set by the Kyoto Protocol.  The previous Liberal government negotiated Canada’s participation in the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and committed Canada to reach its target by 2008.

Canada's 2004 GHG emissions by sourceThe pie chart at left, from the same release, shows a breakdown of Canada’s 2004 GHG emission by source.  Road transportation accounted for 145 Mt (19 percent of the total); electricity generation, 130 Mt (17%); agriculture, 55 Mt (7%).

Since our Kyoto target is 563 Mt, Canada would have to reduce GHG emissions to a level 195 Mt  below 2004 emissions.  The pie chart shows that required reduction is well above total emissions from road transportation, and is also more than the total of electricity generation and agriculture.  So, Ms Ambrose is indeed correct in her illustrative examples of what Kyoto demands of Canadians.

Sorry, Gilles, but the joke’s on you.

Mr Duceppe made his innumerate comment in the context of a motion, introduced by the Bloc and supported the NDP and the Liberals, intended to “force” the Conservative government to meet the Kyoto target.  The motion calls on Ottawa to set forth a Kyoto implementation plan by 15 October.

Liberal support for this motion is a travesty: the Liberals signed on to Kyoto in 1997 and had almost eight years to formulate an implementation plan and failed miserably.  Now they demand that the Conservatives get one in place within five months.

A good look at the line chart above will make it plain that Canada’s Kyoto target is not going to be met.  Ms Ambrose, in arguing for an alternative approach to climate change, is simply recognizing reality—and being honest about it.  The Liberals, by contrast, dissembled for years about Canada’s inability to comply with Kyoto.  Apparently, Mr Duceppe was happier with that approach.

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May 16th, 2006 at 5:48 pm

Zimbabwe rounds up destitute street people

Evil despot President Robert Mugabe, having wrecked Zimbabwe's economy, now turns his wrath on the victims of his folly.  Thousands forced in live in the streets of Harare because the government destroyed their homes last year have been caught up in "anti-crime" sweeps and will be deported to the hinterlands.

President Robert Mugabe began a new onslaught on Zimbabwe's poor yesterday when his regime announced that more than 10,000 street children and vagrants had been "rounded up" in Harare.

Police described their latest assault on the capital's poverty-stricken street dwellers, codenamed Operation Round Up, as a crime-fighting measure.

Last year they bulldozed thousands of "illegal structures" in the poorest townships, leaving 700,000 people without homes or livelihoods.

The new operation appears aimed at those cast on to the streets by the earlier demolitions.

Sycophants defend Mugabe's orders.

Assistant Commissioner Munyaradzi Musariri said they would be "relocated" to their "homes" in rural areas. "As police, we will not rest until there is sanity in the streets and the operation is continuing," he said.

As Mr Musariri knows full well, those who can't find homes in the rural areas where they're dumped will be left to fend for themselves.  And I wouldn't worry too much about "sanity in the streets" when there's a madman running the whole country.

Previous related post: Zimbabwe heads for summer of discontent

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May 16th, 2006 at 5:16 pm

Randall Terry swims the Tiber

Randall Terry, leader of the activist pro-life organisation Operation Rescue from 1987 to 1994, was received into the Roman Catholic Church on Holy Thursday, together with his wife and three sons.  He now lives in Saint Augustine, Florida, and is planning to run for a Florida Senate seat.

The National Catholic Register has posted an interview with Mr Terry here and a background article here.

via The Confessing Reader.

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May 16th, 2006 at 5:06 pm

Turkey adamant: Armenian genocide shall not be discussed

An editorial in this morning's New York Times catalogues recent instances of Turkey's "self-destructive obsession" with denouncing references to the Armenian genocide.

The Turks pulled out of a NATO exercise this week because the Canadian prime minister used the term "genocide" in reference to the mass killings of Armenians in Turkey during and after World War I. Before that, the Turkish ambassador to France was temporarily recalled to protest a French bill that would make it illegal to deny that the Armenian genocide occurred. And before that, a leading Turkish novelist, Orhan Pamuk, was charged with "insulting Turkish identity" for referring to the genocide (the charges were dropped after an international outcry).
. . .
Granted, genocide is a difficult crime for any nation to acknowledge. But it is absurd to treat any reference to the issue within Turkey as a crime and to scream "lie!" every time someone mentions genocide.

The preponderance of historical scholarship supports the claim that over a million Armenians died between 1914 and 1923 in a operation backed by the Turkish government of the day.  Turkey should realise that its hysterical reaction to any attempt even to discuss the issue only damages the credibility of its denials.

via e-mail from Alfonso Marin.

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May 16th, 2006 at 4:48 pm

It’s Census Day in Canada

Joe Walker, who does Anglican Campus Ministry at University of Alberta, thought I should get the day off, since I'm a statistician.  Good thought, Joe, but I'm afraid not.  Maybe I'll mention it to my boss before the next census rolls around in 2011.

Previous related post: Census suds 

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