Several alarming new developments in the Darfur conflict indicate that anarchy is looming over the strife-torn region. David Blair of the London Telegraph reports:
Both Khartoum’s regime and the rebels have largely lost control of events in Darfur. The regime’s proxy militias – the notorious "Janjaweed" gunmen – have turned to banditry and random attacks. The Arab tribes – supposedly on the same side in this war – are fighting each other over scarce water and pasture.
The SLA [Sudan Liberation Army] rebels have fractured along tribal lines and different factions are now fighting each other. A new rebel group has emerged – the so-called National Movement for Reform and Development. It fights everyone else.
At the same time, the Sudanese government has opened up a new offensive against rebels in southern Darfur. Last Monday, Khartoum broke a “no-fly” agreement signed in December 2004 by sending helicopter gunships and at least one bomber into the area. As a result, over 200,000 additional refugees have fled their homes and moved into camps.
Aid agencies are finding it increasingly difficult to continue operations in Darfur for two reasons. First, donations are not flowing in as quickly as in the past, apparently due to “donor fatigue”. Second, the Sudanese government is hindering access by foreign aid workers.
In mid-March, Arab Muslim militias engaged in the ethnic cleansing of Darfur began encroaching into neighbouring Chad to kill and terrorise there as well. Now Khartoum is actively supporting Islamic rebel groups in Chad seeking to destabilise, if not depose, Chadian President Idriss Déby.
In recent months, as Human Rights Watch has reported, the National Islamic Front in Khartoum has supported the Chadian rebels even as it has loosed its own murderous Arab militia allies on the non-Arab tribal populations of eastern Chad.
Indeed, Human Rights Watch reports that "the janjaweed militias have carried out attacks inside Chad accompanied by Sudanese army troops with helicopter gunship support."
Chad's capital, N'Djamena, is far to the west of the Chad-Sudan border. But as Déby has begun to feel more threatened, he has redeployed his military forces westward and into major garrisons in a desperate bid to retain power.
In fact, N'Djamena itself was attacked by the rebels on April 13, and though the assault was repelled, military assets will be increasingly concentrated in the capital and larger towns.
This means that no military protection will be deployed in eastern Chad near the border with Sudan. Not only Chadian citizens, but also refugees from Darfur, will be virtually defenceless.
The Western world, including especially the United Nations, has dithered for years while Darfur has been decimated. Now the Sudanese agents of genocide are spreading into Chad. If President Déby falls—a distinct possibility—Cameroon and the Central African Republic could be the next targets.
International Herald Tribune link via titusonenine.
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