Magic Statistics

The latest UK statistics on crimes reported to the police show that robberies, sex offences, and violence causing injury have increased.  Drug offences are also up 20%.

Overall violent crime rose by one per cent in the Oct-Dec 2005 period, compared with the same period in 2004, to just under 298,000 crimes.

Within that overall total, "more serious violence" - the smallest category - fell by 12 per cent, to around 9,800.

But there was a six per cent rise in "offences against the person - with injury", to 130,700 crimes.

Violence offences without injury, which include harassment, fell slightly. Much of the lower level violence has been driven by heavy drinking. Criminal damage also rose slightly.

These data on police-reported crime are so unfavourable that the Home Office tried to deflect attention by pointing to the British Crime Survey (BCS), a general population survey focusing on crime victimisation.

The BCS is described by the Home Office as "generally accepted as the most authoritative and reliable indicator of crime trends" - an assertion which is disputed by some experts in the field.

The BCS has traditionally showed rates of crime higher than the recorded figures but the Government has highlighted it in recent years because of its apparent downward trend.

The Home Office pointed out that, measured by the BCS, the risk of being a victim of crime, at 23 per cent, was the lowest since 1981 and violent crime was "stable" year on year in the BCS.

This reminds me of the old adage, "Figures don't lie, but liars politicians will figure."

The minister responsible is Home Secretary Charles Clarke, who is already under great pressure to resign for a scandal earlier this week when it was revealed that over 1000 foreign criminals had been released "in error" from UK jails without being considered for deportation.  The criminals include rapists, murderers, robbers, and paedophiles. Mr Clarke has admitted that over 900 of them are loose in the UK and may never be found because their whereabouts are unknown.  Prime Minister Tony Blair rejected Mr Clarke's offer to resign, leading the Telegraph to suggest that the logic of the Blair government is "the bigger the blunder, the smaller the chance of resignation".

Public pressure for Mr Clarke's resignation has intensified since he admitted today that at least five of the foreign criminals released by mistake have since been convicted of crimes involving drugs or violence.  Two more are being investigated on possible charges of sexual assault.  The Times of London story includes this mind-boggling gem: "[A]lmost a third of those released were freed after the Government had already been informed about the problem."  What does Mr Clarke have to do to get sacked?

A final insult: In a related story, the Times reports that one of the foreign criminals released because of "a major administrative cock-up”, a 24-year-old Jamaican previously jailed in the UK for having sex with an underage girl, has since been sentenced to 24 years for attempted murder after shooting a man outside a Sheffield nightclub.

This next link has been around for a year, but this is a fitting time for another look.  Charles Clarke presents the case for national ID cards in "The very model of a modern Labour minister" (with apologies to Gilbert and Sullivan)—one of the cleverest and side-splittingest flash animations I've ever seen.  Here's the first verse:

The world today is filled with villains stealing one's identity
And terrorists intent on acts of violent extremity
Our citizens are prisoners, our criminals at liberty
Our nation at the mercy of felonious proclivity
Our very own Home Secretary will rebuild our society
A model of sagaciousness and picture of propriety
It's patent that protection of the future of humanity
Relies on Mr Clarke to put an end to this insanity!

Mr Clarke seems to have given up on putting an end to the insanity of "criminals at liberty"; he's now feeding the insanity!

Previous related post: A primer on crime statistics

Zimbabwean Dictator President Robert Mugabe has ordered 300% pay increases for selected government employees: security services (including the armed forces) and teachers.  Since annual inflation is running at almost 1000%, economists say the increases will be eaten up by price increases within two or three months.  January's pay rise of 200% is already worthless.

The pay hikes have been authorised in an apparent bid to shore up the army’s loyalty to the government.  Mr Mugabe has to have the military on his side as opposition forces have announced plans for mass protests this summer.

A top official from Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, told IWPR [Institute for War and Peace Reporting] after the party's recent national council meeting that the ruling ZANU PF party needs to brace itself for the biggest street protests Zimbabwe has seen since independence more than a quarter century ago.

The official said he believed that most Zimbabweans, who are struggling to survive in a country where official inflation has reached nearly 1,000 per cent, will heed the call for the demonstrations.

"The people are suffering. Some can't even afford a meal a day," he said. "Every Zimbabwean is angry with the government as prices continue to skyrocket. I am telling you that the worst is to come for the government in three to four months time as people march in the streets against them.

"This time, no amount of intimidation will work. The government can threaten all it wants. That will not stop people. By that time, things will be worse."

Mr Mugabe has warned that he is quite prepared to fight back with whatever force is necessary to put down demonstrations.

Senior government and Zanu PF officials have in the past weeks made threatening statements against anyone planning to participate in mass protests against President Robert Mugabe, 82, his government and repressive organs of state such as the police, army and Central Intelligence Organisation.

Mugabe himself warned Tsvangirai that he would be "dicing with death" if he tried to take power through street protests. Mugabe went on, "If a person wants to invite his own death, let him go ahead … If you want an excuse for being killed, be my guest and go into the streets and demonstrate."

Thus, the pay hikes for Zimbabwe’s security forces. Facing possible insurrection, Mugabe is paying the price to hold on to power.

Zimbabwe could be moving toward a summer of serious, widespread discontent.

Previous related posts:

• Zimbabwe observes a sombre anniversary
• Mugabe to white farmers: No hard feelings

One of the oldest buildings in Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, has been destroyed by fire.

The old stone Catholic church was destroyed in the early hours of Thursday morning, in a fire that officials say was caused by arson. The 53-year-old building was located across the bay from the site of the modern-day community.

"I just knew that this last remnant of Cambridge Bay's old town was going to disappear," said Vicki Aitaok, who witnessed the blaze. She called the fire department, but watched helplessly as the historical building was engulfed in flames.

"All that's left is structure, the exterior structure," she said. "The bell tower, is still standing, but the roof is completely gone."

The church was built in 1953 on the original town site, across the bay from the current town site, using leftover cement, frost-split rocks, and seal oil.  It was not wired for electricity and had been out of use for decades, replaced by a Catholic church at the new town site.  The above photo of the church was downloaded from the website of the hamlet of Cambridge Bay.

Map from Polarnet.ca, Internet Service Provider in Cambridge Bay and four other remote northern towns.