Magic Statistics

“I accept no responsibility for statistics, which are a form of magic beyond my comprehension.” — Robertson Davies

February 14th, 2006 at 9:28 pm

More bad news for Europe

This blog has discussed Europe's problems many times: demographic collapse, rising crime, loss of confidence in its own heritage, impending dhimmitude. Now add to that litany economic decline. Fareed Zakaria in the Washington Post discusses an OECD report showing that Europe has fallen far behind the United States in economic production, and looks set to fall behind even farther.

It's often noted that the European Union has a combined gross domestic product that is approximately the same as that of the United States. But the E.U. has 170 million more people. Its per capita GDP is 25 percent lower than that of the United States, and, most important, that gap has been widening for 15 years. If present trends continue, the chief economist at the OECD argues, in 20 years the average U.S. citizen will be twice as rich as the average Frenchman or German. (Britain is an exception on most of these measures, lying somewhere between Continental Europe and the United States.)

Mr Zakaria talks about the various statistics used to measure the decline: unemployment rates, working-age population, per capita Gross Domestic Product, expenditures on research and development, etc. But he never really comes to grips with possible causes of Europe's relatively poor economic perfomance.

Why exactly is Europe falling farther and farther behind the US? Mr Zakaria does mention failed attempts to liberalise trading rules. That is important, but I would suspect the fundamental problem is high taxes levied to pay for Europe's expensive welfare state programs. As the population ages and the proportion of workers declines, those programs are only going to become more expensive and so taxes will have to be ratcheted up even higher. Unless there is a fundamental change in European fiscal policies, economic decline will continue.

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February 14th, 2006 at 8:33 pm

Dirty tricks in Ottawa

Not exactly big news, you say. True, except that these tricks are not being played in the government, but in the Anglican Church of Canada.

Once again, a liberal bishop has preempted "discussion" over same-sex unions. This time it's Bp Peter Coffin of the Diocese of Ottawa, who last week gave permission to an American priest in a same-sex relationship to officiate in the diocese. This despite Bp Coffin's commitment to wait for the decision of General Synod 2007 before moving ahead with same-sex blessings. From an open letter dated 6 February by the Executive Committee of the Anglican Gathering of Ottawa:

[I]n welcoming this priest to function in our diocese, he has in effect acted preemptively. Orthodox Anglicans feel betrayed by his recent actions and are dismayed by the fracture that will inevitably follow.

Priests are supposed to be held to a high moral standard. That standard has always been faithfulness in marriage between a man and a woman or abstinence. If a bishop sanctions same-sex marriage in the priesthood, surely there can be no basis for refusing to marry any same-sex couple.

In a supplementary open letter dated 9 February, it was suggested that the question before the Diocese of Ottawa is no longer about same-sex unions as such, but rather about returning to biblical teaching regarding sexuality. The answer to this question has ramifications for the relationship between the Anglican Church of Canada and the worldwide Anglican Communion.

I could find no information on these recent developments at the website of the Anglican Diocese of Ottawa, so my sources of information on this are the websites of Classical Anglican News Net and the Anglican Gathering of Ottawa.

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February 14th, 2006 at 7:32 pm

Followers of “Prophet of compassion” attack embassies

Crowds in Tehran, Iran, have attacked the British and German embassies.

Scores of Iranian demonstrators hurled petrol bombs at the British embassy on Tuesday in renewed protests over the publication of cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammad and Western opposition to Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

The protesters, mostly religious seminary students, chanted "Death to Tony Blair", "Death to Britain" and "Death to America" while throwing hundreds of stones at the embassy buildings, smashing many windows.
. . .
Cheers erupted when a petrol bomb was thrown over the high wall surrounding the embassy compound in central Tehran. Several other petrol bombs struck the wall and the embassy's main gate.

Scuffles broke out between the protesters and dozens of riot police trying to prevent the crowd from surging towards the embassy gates.

Stones and firecrackers were thrown at the nearby German embassy by a smaller crowd of protesters earlier on Tuesday.

"Europe, Europe this is the last warning. Mohammad is the Prophet of compassion, America is the cause of all misery," the crowd of about 50 chanted outside the German embassy.

They chanted, "Mohammed is the prophet of compassion", while throwing rocks and bombs at the embassies. That says it all.

via Infidel Bloggers Alliance, where it's noted that Yahoo News UK posted the story over twelve hours ago, but it has not yet been picked up by any mainstream British news outlet.

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February 14th, 2006 at 6:22 pm

Babies better off if mothers stay home

Times of London columnist Libby Purves praises Steve Biddulph for changing his mind when the evidence contradicted his former belief that daycare ("nursery" in Britain) is good for infants and toddlers.

[H]e risks his neck by cautioning that putting children under 3 into nurseries all day may seriously damage their development. He saw the best nurseries "struggle to meet the needs of very young children in a group setting". The worst were "negligent, frightening and bleak — a nightmare of bewildered loneliness that was heartbreaking to watch". He supported early nursery once; he has looked and recanted.
. . .
A young baby needs a person not a place, not "affordable care" but devoted care. Perhaps not all day long, but for a good part of it.

Present policies of employers and government encourage both parents to hurry back to work ASAP after having a baby. This must be changed: our children are too important.

Previous posts on child care policy are here and here.

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