Magic Statistics

“I accept no responsibility for statistics, which are a form of magic beyond my comprehension.” — Robertson Davies

November 19th, 2005 at 6:26 pm

St Olave’s Church, Hart Street, London

This church is dedicated to Olave Haraldson (995-1030), king and national patron saint of Norway. (His first name is also spelled Olaf or Olav.) Even though he was ruler of a foreign country, St Olave is a very popular saint in Britain. Ancient churches dedicated to him are found in eastern England and in the northern isles of Scotland. His popularity derives from the military assistance he provided to King Ethelred II of England in his battles against the Danes.

Olave became king of Norway in 1015. He brought peace and security to his land, but he was at times a harsh ruler. Under his kingship, Norway became at least nominally a Christian nation, although he used force as well as persuasion to accomplish this. A rebellion forced him into exile and he died in battle in 1030 attempting to regain his throne. Subsequently, he was regarded as a patriot and, more than that, a martyr and a saint.

It is believed that a church has existed here since the 11th century, soon after the death of St Olave. Some confusion exists about this because there were two other churches dedicated to Olave in the City of London around that time. Historical records refer to this church as St-Olave-towards-the-Tower in 1222, but by 1405 it had become St-Olave-in-Hertstrete. The present church was constructed around 1450 and is one of eight London churches that survived the Great Fire of 1666 and remain standing today. At the time of the Great Fire, the famous diarist Samuel Pepys (1633-1703) and his wife Elizabeth were parishioners; in his diaries, St Olave's is referred as "our own church". When Samuel Pepys was promoted to Admiralty Secretary, his place of work was the Navy Office in Seething Lane, close by St Olave’s Church. Samuel and Elizabeth joined the parish about six months after he began his diary on 1 January 1660. Both are buried at the church. Also buried here are Mary Ramsey, who reportedly brought the Plague to London, and an eccentric woman known as "Mother Goose" who died in 1586 (her real name is uncertain).

St Olave’s survived the Great Fire due to the efforts of Admiral William Penn and Samuel Pepys who, as the blaze approached, had houses blown up to save the Navy Office. The church suffered heavy damage during World War II, but was later fully restored. King Haakon VII of Norway, who lived in the parish during the war years, laid the new foundation stone in 1951.

One of the smallest churches in the City of London, St Olave’s was described by John Betjeman as "a country church in the world of Seething Lane".

At left is a photo of the post-war east window. The centre-left panel shows Christ crucified; the centre-right, Christ in majesty. In the lower-left corner, St Olave stands with King Haakon VII’s arms below. In the lower right, St George over Queen Elizabeth II’s arms.

(As always, click on photos for larger views.)

 

 

The photo at right shows the east window from farther away, so that part of the new wooden ceiling is visible along with upper windows and wall decorations. This site has a picture of the interior of the church with its original ceiling.

Shown at left is the memorial to Samuel Pepys, set high on the south wall. The interior of the church once contained massive galleries that were removed in 1853. The south gallery included a special Navy Office pew where Pepys sat. The entrance to the south gallery was reached by a staircase (since removed) from the churchyard and is marked on the outer wall by an inscription. The Pepys Memorial was placed in 1863 on the wall nearest the place where he used to sit in church.

St Olave’s, Hart Street, apparently does not have its own web page. This site has more historical information on the church. The customary map is here.

There are many Samuel Pepys sites on the internet. Here are three links in increasing level of detail: one, two, three. A fellow named Phil Gyford has had the ingenious idea of posting Samuel Pepys’ Diary as a weblog.

Links to all my blog posts about British churches and Christian sites can be accessed through the box located at the top of the page.

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November 19th, 2005 at 12:12 pm

French Jews fleeing anti-Semitism

Jews are leaving France in ever-growing numbers, reports Mireille Silcoff in The National Post. Violent anti-Semitic attacks have become so common that France's Jewish community has established its own security firm, Service de la protection de la communauté Juif. Security guards are on duty at synagogues and private Jewish schools, including the Lycée Diane Benvenuti in the 16th arrondissement of Paris.

[School principal] Mr. Barthel walks me through the school, which was built three years ago to what he calls "new specifications for a new reality. All of our windows are made with glass both bomb- and bullet-proof; there are security cameras in all the common rooms," he says. "You will also notice there is no sign outside of the school that could single it out as a Jewish place."
. . .
Mr. Barthel explains the buddy system instituted at the Benvenuti school for children both arriving and leaving the premises. The students must travel in a pack and are not allowed to wear visible skullcaps or Stars of David anywhere but inside the school.

More and more French Jews are moving to Israel, the United States, and Quebec. Mr Barthel and his family are preparing to emigrate to Montreal next year.

Since 2001, French Jewish immigration to Montreal has increased by more than 700%, an influx of European-born Jews from a single country in numbers not seen since the middle of the past century.

Paris was burning for two weeks this month. But Jewish Paris has been burning for five years — a steady, fiery precursor that went largely ignored by the French authorities. The rise of the Al-Aqsa Intifada in 2000 sparked a wave of mainly Muslim-led, anti-Jewish violence in France that has since brought forth thousands of hateful acts aimed at French Jews and their places of business, study, recreation, prayer and burial.

French President Jacques Chirac, however, admonished a Jewish editor to "stop saying there is anti-Semitism in France. There is no anti-Semitism in France." No wonder the authorities turn a blind eye to attacks on Jews. Mr Barthel is resigned to leaving his homeland:

"Sometimes it's best," says Mr. Barthel, "to just look clearly and say, 'OK, it's been nice in the past, but now it's time to move on.' In the span of history," he adds, "this is a not an altogether unfamiliar situation for us."

True, but it's still sad, I think.

The National Post says this is the first of a three-part series.

via Fjordman.

UPDATE (21 Nov.): Part two of the series: Taking leave of 'the fear'.

UPDATE 2 (22 Nov.): Part three of the series blogged here.

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November 19th, 2005 at 7:36 am

Do figures speak for themselves?

Walter Laqueur, co-chair of the International Research Council at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and one of the world's leading experts on terrorism, has posted a short item on terrorism statistics at The Free West. He makes the point that any statistics on terrorism reported in the media must be viewed with great caution and, indeed, skepticism. "It is not that these statistics are wholly useless, but they are bound to be incomplete and quite often they are offered by institutions or individuals peddling their own agendas." This observation seems obvious, but such statistics have been thrown around more often in recent years, so it is good to be reminded.

Some facts about terrorism are clearly beyond dispute; terrorist attacks are not usually carried out by babies or by elderly people. But to know why, no elaborate data base is needed. Or the fact that terrorism occurs only in democracies or very ineffective dictatorships; the reasons are utterly obvious. But the moment the theory builders get more ambitious, great caution is advisable . . .

Mr Laqueur rightly rejects the old canard "figures speak for themselves" in connection with terrorism statistics. Whenever I hear that said in connection with any statistic, red flags jump out all over the place. In my experience, it is almost always the case that the person saying that has overlooked some salient related facts–or has a hidden agenda.

Speaking as a professional statistician, I would say the opposite is closer to the truth: As a general rule, figures never speak for themselves. Be very skeptical whenever you hear someone say, "The numbers speak for themselves". Numbers only make sense when placed in a context or other interpretive framework.

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