Magic Statistics

George Gallup, one of the most respected public opinion pollsters in the world, echoes some of the criticisms I made about Gregory Paul's study which purported to find a positive correlation between religious belief and several social pathologies. Mr Gallup has written a letter to the Times of London taking Ruth Gledhill to task for her uncritical news article puffing Mr Paul's little study.

From David Virtue's exclusive report, here are Gallup's two main objections to Paul's work:

First. Paul claims that regressions and multivariate analyses were not used because 'causal factors for rates of societal function are complex', and because he finds enough uniformity across the cases of 18 of the world's most powerful societies to consider them basically consistent and not in need of control variables. Can he identify a single other study published in a major social scientific journal that compared results across countries that did not employ multivariate analysis to control for differences among nations? No, because multivariate analysis is required for cross-national comparisons of this sort.

Secondly. In order for the author's bold claims against religious commitment contributing to society to hold true, he would have to refute the hundreds of volumes that have proven otherwise. From discussions on parenting and fatherhood, to mental and physical health, the weight of empirical evidence is against Paul's assertions: religious commitment has notably positive effects on the individual and collective levels of human society.

That first criticism is the same as one I presented in my post of 27 September. As I said then, regression analysis, or some other kind of multi-variate analysis, is required to assess adequately the factors Mr Paul attempts to correlate on a pair-wise basis.

Mr Gallup's second point has been noted by other bloggers. Mr Paul's work represents a single study with this finding, compared to hundreds of other, far more rigourous studies showing that religious faith is correlated with all kinds of positive individual chacteristics and social outcomes. It is simply not rational to reject all those other findings on the basis of this one simple-minded analysis which, to be honest, seems to have been done on the back of an envelope.

Read the whole thing for an outline of how properly to measure religious belief and practice, and the results that obtain when such measures are correlated with specific behaviours.

Vindication is sweet.

UPDATE (30 Dec.): Touchstone Magazine has published George Gallup's article criticising Mr Paul's study.

A man who donated sperm so that two lesbians could have children has been found liable for child support. The Supreme Court of Sweden decided that the biological father is financially reponsible for the three children his sperm produced. The poor guy's on the hook for major bucks. This might put a damper on the whole sperm donation thing.

via ¡No Pasaràn!

Previous "This was so predictable" post here.

If anyone would know, I suppose it would be the Material Girl. From an interview with the pop singer Madonna:

The former Material Girl now believes the beast is the modern world that we live in!

"The material world. The physical world. The world of illusion, that we think is real. We live for it, we're enslaved by it. And it will ultimately be our undoing," Madonna explains in her new documentary film, I'm Going To Tell You A Secret.

In the movie, which will premiere at the Ziegfeld Theater in New York City on Tuesday, Madonna warns how people "are going to go to hell, if they don't turn from their wicked behavior."

Madonna has turned into quite the preacher. Does her new concern with "wicked behaviour" mean she repents for her former sexual immoralities? This little snippet doesn't mention that, so we don't know for sure. I wouldn't bet the family farm on it just yet.

In any case, viewing the "physical" world as evil sounds like that ancient heresy Gnosticism. Christians, by contrast, believe that all of God's creation, including the physical realm, is good. Although presently in a fallen condition because of man's sin, creation's redemption is assured through Christ's sacrifice.

Evil is not located in the external material world, but in the heart of each of us—including Madonna.

via Drudge.

The Times of London lists the world's most expen$ive beds.

Vicky Gone Wild.

This is the fourth and final Cotswolds wool church we visited during our summer 2004 vacation in Britain. In the past ten days, I’ve blogged churches in Cirencester, Chipping Campden, and Stow-on-the-Wold.

The village of Northleach is quite different from the other three towns. Stow-on-the-Wold and Chipping Campden are villages that are also popular tourist destinations, so in the summer their streets can be crowded with visitors. Cirencester is a larger centre (population approx. 50,000) that has its own daily life and commercial activity apart from tourism. But Northleach is a small village with little tourist traffic. It is off the tourist paths, so it has a peaceful quality sometimes lacking in other parts of the Cotswolds. That’s not to say that the Cotswolds region is too busy for a relaxing visit, just that some parts are quieter than others.

Of the four churches we looked into, I find it impossible to say which one is the grandest or most magnificent. They are all great and well worth visiting.

Like the other three towns, Northleach was very prosperous in the days of the medieval wool trade. It is said that Northleach was for about a century the most important Cotswold wool town. Its wool was acclaimed as the finest in England and garnered top prices in the wool markets of France and Belgium. Local merchants in the 15th century were medieval business leaders—always traveling between Northleach, London, and Calais. The town’s prosperity enriched and furnished the local parish church, as of course was also the case for churches in other Cotswold wool centres.

The existing Northleach parish church is at least the second built here. In the 12th century, construction of the present building began on the site of an earlier church, and it was completely rebuilt in the 14th and 15th centuries. This photo shows the first view of the church seen by those approaching from the town square. Its formidable tower has been aptly described by Simon Jenkins as "a bull neck of a tower". One hundred feet high, it was built between about 1380 and 1400.

(As always, click on photos for larger views.)

Another prominent feature of the Church of St Peter & St Paul is its great porch. It is an unusual two-storey porch replete with carved Gothic decorations and ribbed construction. The photo at left shows the ceiling inside the porch, rather more elaborate than one would expect for an entrance way. In medieval England, the porch of the parish church was an important meeting place. All civil contracts and many legal documents, including wills and banns of marriage, were signed and/or distributed there. Business was transacted and debts paid. A statue of the Madonna and Child is carved in a prominent position just outside the porch entrance to remind those doing legal and other business that heavenly witnesses as well as earthly ones are looking on.

In the south aisle of the church is found a 13th-century covered font. (The cover is, unfortunately, a more modern replacement for the original.) A variety of figures has been carved into the stone. Six carved heads circle the top of the font. Beneath the row of heads are eight angels playing such musical instruments as viols, flutes, and tabors. Around the base appear demon heads being squashed out by the holy water—crushed by the power of Christian baptism.

Notice the mirror placed at the foot of the font to make it easier to see the angels under the rim. The photo at left was taken looking into the mirror. I am amazed at the fine craftsmanship that went into carving figures that, due to their awkward position, the artists knew would be viewed only infrequently.

The church also has one of England’s best collections of brasses. These memorials placed in the floor of the church are almost all dedicated to the memory of wealthy wool merchants and their families. John Fortey (d. 1458), who re-built the nave and added the clerestory, has a plaque with the inscription: "Behold, what is the good of anything in life–all of which is nothing unless one loves God".

Northleach is located close to the centre of the Cotswolds about 10 miles south of Stow-on-the-Wold. Here’s a map. The town’s website is here.

Here’s a guided tour of the church. For more photos, click here or here.

So, where did the name "Cotswolds" come from? Here are two possibilities. This page also has information on the history of Cotswolds sheep and a detail from John Fortey's memorial brass.

Links to all my blog posts about British churches and Christian sites can be accessed through the box located at the top of the page.