Magic Statistics

The study by Gregory S. Paul on religious faith and social problems has been spinning around the blogosphere for two days now. So, who is this Gregory Paul anyway? It turns out that he is really a "freelance" paleontologist with no apparent experience in sociology, social science research, or statistical analysis. (Those who have read this post already know that Mr Paul’s knowledge of statistical analysis is, shall we say, sketchy.)

Kathy Shaidle points us to an interview with Mr Paul printed in an Australian newspaper. Even though the reporter lobbed him softball questions, he sounds like he’s not sure what he’s doing analysing social behaviours.

The Journal of Religion and Society (JRS), where Mr Paul’s paper was published, is apparently willing to publish articles contributed by authors with no expertise or qualifications in their area of study. The table of contents of the current issue of the JRS lists affiliations for most contributors, but Mr Paul is listed only as: "Gregory S. Paul, Baltimore, Maryland." One could conclude that he does not hold a relevant position at an academic or other research institution. In view of the poor quality of Mr Paul’s analysis, I’d be interested to know if the JRS is a refereed journal, or do they publish just about anything they receive?

An enterprising blogger named John Williams at Thudfactor went so far as to e-mail the Journal of Religion and Society to ask if they had any further information about Mr Paul’s experience and credentials. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, but still I was astonished to read that the JRS knows nothing about this fellow—except that the e-mail address he provided to the journal is no longer in service. (Didn’t they even get a mailing address from this guy?) Mr Williams also links to a Wikipedia entry on one Gregory S. Paul that describes him as a "freelance paleontologist, author and illustrator" who "is best known for his work and research on theropod dinosaurs . . . " No mention of any proficiency in social science research or statistical analysis. (Who wrote this entry for Wikipedia anyway? Any bets it was—Gregory Paul?!)

Finally, a Google search for "Gregory Paul" turns up this web page which lists Mr Paul as a speaker recommended by the Council for Secular Humanism for debates with young-earth creationists.

So, what can be pulled together from all this? Gregory Paul has published a study of social problems and religious faith; but he has no apparent expertise or qualifications in social science research so, predictably, said study is statistically invalid. Said study was published by a journal that apparently does not have high standards for articles it publishes, and it does not even know how to contact Mr Paul. Finally, said study makes a ham-handed attempt to portray religious faith as a dangerous and socially destructive force in the U.S., and it transpires that the author is on the Council for Secular Humanism’s list of recommended speakers.

I think that Mr Paul has successfully played a big con game. That, at least, inspires a grudging (not to say perverse) admiration.

UPDATE: John Williams tells me he didn't phone the JRS, he sent an e-mail. The post has been amended accordingly.

This was taken from my office window this morning shortly after 7:00 am. (Click on photos for enlarged views.) That's when I arrive at work; I'm usually the first one there. We've had beautiful crisp, clear days recently, so I thought it would be good to post a couple of photos. My office is on the fourth floor of an office building in downtown Whitehorse, and my view faces east toward the Yukon River.

This photo was taken just about 8:30 am. Sunrise has officially past, but from this angle the sun has not yet appeared over the hill straight ahead. That's not snow on the hill; clouds are rolling up the far side of the hill and down the other. Quite a neat effect.

For maps of Whitehorse and its several neighbourhoods, click here. My home is in Copper Ridge. I can make it to the office downtown in ten minutes by car, but only because there's hardly any traffic on the road when I'm heading to work. At busier times, it can take up to fifteen minutes. Not much of a commute by southern standards. That's one of the many advantages to living in a small city.

Now the question that everyone from down south will be wondering: When does winter start in Whitehorse? Generally, we can expect to have a significant snowfall by mid- or late October. So–maybe a few weeks from now. According to the current five-day weather forecast, we can look forward to rain with high temperatures of around plus 8° Celsius and lows around zero. Rain? Yeccch! I'd rather have snow.